{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3c8a598-574a-4c74-89dc-dce6c39a6e66", "symbol": "002992", "name": "Shenzhen Baoming Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.851, "architecture_energy": 80.865, "architecture_maturity": 36.507, "architecture_confidence": 86.74, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 10.55, "upward_expansion": 19.35, "deceleration": 38.04, "rotation_down": 76.78, "downward_expansion": 95.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.716, 37.08509, 41.068, 43.998731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 37.5, "trend_reference": 47.249, "distance_from_trend": -0.206332, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.948846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.329745, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.600122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.299851, "excess_performance": -0.30725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206332, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075543, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.329745, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.299851, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675622, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13138749, "relative_activity": 1.41811, "balance": 0.675622, "dry_up": 1.053276, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122687, "annualized_volatility": 0.5058, "from_high_reference": -0.438623, "from_low_reference": 0.209677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.249, "fair_value_reference": 55.948846, "structural_low": 31.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.005042, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.014433, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.786622, "worst_return": -0.236222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.150811, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.10311, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 2.02073, "worst_return": -0.353313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.684658, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.485493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.923756, "worst_return": -0.149716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.200001, "volume": 10447999, "typical_volume": 9504348.85, "trend": 49.322667, "fair_value": 56.739039, "relative_strength": -31.586151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.688798, "energy": 54.656567, "activity_lines": [ 41.826667, 42.822, 45.953381, 47.756667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.599998, "volume": 8394163, "typical_volume": 9449219.85, "trend": 48.696333, "fair_value": 56.548782, "relative_strength": -38.11507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.219361, "energy": 84.674274, "activity_lines": [ 38.560666, 40.683818, 44.450381, 46.677785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.0, "volume": 9068550, "typical_volume": 9384570.85, "trend": 48.203, "fair_value": 56.307821, "relative_strength": -34.768378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.885218, "energy": 88.559931, "activity_lines": [ 36.396, 39.160181, 43.197333, 45.729634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.459999, "volume": 8432841, "typical_volume": 9229359.0, "trend": 47.586, "fair_value": 56.092821, "relative_strength": -37.797853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.504781, "energy": 92.233262, "activity_lines": [ 34.179333, 37.430545, 41.793809, 44.649441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.5, "volume": 13138749, "typical_volume": 9264973.45, "trend": 47.249, "fair_value": 55.948846, "relative_strength": -28.600122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.851294, "energy": 80.86452, "activity_lines": [ 34.716, 37.08509, 41.068, 43.998731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }