{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3cdb4a9-b940-4cea-8d7c-0f662e2ac923", "symbol": "ORIC", "name": "Oric Pharmaceuticals\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.368, "architecture_energy": 60.018, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.962, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.04, "rotation_up": 74.21, "upward_expansion": 55.51, "deceleration": 16.45, "rotation_down": 14.77, "downward_expansion": 25.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.026, 11.226727, 10.256714, 10.311204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.5, "trend_reference": 10.514, "distance_from_trend": 0.284002, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.558654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.412333, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.954273, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.295585, "excess_performance": 0.108132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.284002, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.412333, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.461657, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099543, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.400277, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.295585, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.491685, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11860795, "relative_activity": 1.327165, "balance": 1.491685, "dry_up": 0.984395, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116524, "annualized_volatility": 0.846013, "from_high_reference": -0.09578, "from_low_reference": 0.86722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.514, "fair_value_reference": 9.558654, "structural_low": 7.23, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.122616, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.151266, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.182599, "worst_return": -0.298876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062921, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004654, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134264, "worst_return": -0.305042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.010903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.190946, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114607, "worst_return": -0.136412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106776, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100379, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.323232, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109091, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153465, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.315739, 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"volume": 8950930, "typical_volume": 8896882.8, "trend": 10.272333, "fair_value": 9.506731, "relative_strength": 4.173341, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.834513, "energy": 56.061086, "activity_lines": [ 11.252, 10.296, 9.796571, 10.057742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.07, "volume": 7834046, "typical_volume": 8763293.5, "trend": 10.369, "fair_value": 9.528526, "relative_strength": -4.973163, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.395146, "energy": 48.783455, "activity_lines": [ 11.285333, 10.565455, 9.908952, 10.109204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.5, "volume": 11860795, "typical_volume": 8936942.7, "trend": 10.514, "fair_value": 9.558654, "relative_strength": 9.954273, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.368485, "energy": 60.017674, "activity_lines": [ 12.026, 11.226727, 10.256714, 10.311204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }