{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3d1ed92-1301-4365-b87e-4f8b0460c04d", "symbol": "MCS", "name": "M.C.S. Steel Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.935, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.328, "architecture_energy": 21.051, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.873, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.01, "rotation_up": 42.46, "upward_expansion": 29.2, "deceleration": 47.06, "rotation_down": 14.88, "downward_expansion": 46.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 7.9, 7.871472, 8.010798 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.05, "trend_reference": 8.116224, "distance_from_trend": -0.008159, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.592554, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.221075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.312628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017275, "excess_performance": -0.17505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00971, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.221075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071201, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.553352, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1822000, "relative_activity": 0.504885, "balance": 0.553352, "dry_up": 0.5584, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026756, "annualized_volatility": 0.195149, "from_high_reference": -0.107928, "from_low_reference": 0.118056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.116224, "fair_value_reference": 6.592554, "structural_low": 7.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003803, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.085106, "worst_return": -0.216667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046829, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.000226, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.074028, "worst_return": -0.255556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09971, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.011605, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121342, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023469, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08642, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.795172, "volume": 1174200, "typical_volume": 2055170.0, "trend": 6.271987, "fair_value": 8.76597, "relative_strength": -25.06091, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -14.700768, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.331857, "energy": 24.998062, "activity_lines": [ 7.856667, 7.736364, 7.897237, 8.028882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.0, "volume": 2325300, "typical_volume": 3832575.0, "trend": 8.095018, "fair_value": 6.552966, "relative_strength": -15.103225, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.295115, "energy": 27.842315, "activity_lines": [ 7.926667, 7.799091, 7.885456, 8.023536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.95, "volume": 1109000, "typical_volume": 3732560.0, "trend": 8.102411, "fair_value": 6.571689, "relative_strength": -14.327965, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.011735, "energy": 27.844585, "activity_lines": [ 7.956667, 7.845455, 7.871586, 8.01418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.05, "volume": 1822000, "typical_volume": 3608745.0, "trend": 8.116224, "fair_value": 6.592554, "relative_strength": -12.312628, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.327629, "energy": 21.05072, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 7.9, 7.871472, 8.010798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }