{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3d3c792-307b-49e8-a76b-1dad10c0f400", "symbol": "IBDR", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS DEC 2026 TERM CORPORATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.678, "architecture_energy": 83.333, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.759, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.3, "rotation_up": 68.46, "upward_expansion": 90.85, "deceleration": 48.71, "rotation_down": 20.62, "downward_expansion": 17.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.159958, 24.14563, 24.119191, 24.086719 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.19, "trend_reference": 24.035468, "distance_from_trend": 0.006429, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.738192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.761422, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011726, "excess_performance": -0.113898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005446, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 5.2e-05, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011726, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.713564, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2847834, "relative_activity": 1.020242, "balance": 13.713564, "dry_up": 0.961151, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001284, "annualized_volatility": 0.006929, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.034783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.035468, "fair_value_reference": 22.738192, "structural_low": 23.899758, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.003114, "positive_rate": 0.829268, "directional_follow_through": 0.829268, "median_excess_return": -0.015062, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.016469, "worst_return": -0.009804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010225, "positive_rate": 0.923077, "directional_follow_through": 0.923077, "median_excess_return": -0.037293, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.032022, "worst_return": -0.006068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021815, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.079588, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.037331, "worst_return": -0.020938, 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24.057479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.139954, "volume": 2840382, "typical_volume": 2794887.9, "trend": 24.012314, "fair_value": 22.69602, "relative_strength": -6.360158, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.73814, "energy": 55.22098, "activity_lines": [ 24.129662, 24.126935, 24.100403, 24.066449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.159888, "volume": 2679556, "typical_volume": 2767913.25, "trend": 24.023389, "fair_value": 22.716867, "relative_strength": -7.008933, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.717461, "energy": 65.653782, "activity_lines": [ 24.139954, 24.134271, 24.108839, 24.07597 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.19, "volume": 2847834, "typical_volume": 2791330.75, "trend": 24.035468, "fair_value": 22.738192, "relative_strength": -9.761422, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.677771, "energy": 83.332679, "activity_lines": [ 24.159958, 24.14563, 24.119191, 24.086719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }