{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3dff632-cce2-424e-9bad-728f1bfa4c47", "symbol": "ISTR", "name": "Investar Holding Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.057, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.311, "architecture_energy": 38.325, "architecture_maturity": 21.722, "architecture_confidence": 80.487, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.84, "rotation_up": 52.57, "upward_expansion": 77.87, "deceleration": 56.36, "rotation_down": 20.36, "downward_expansion": 4.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.976667, 29.846904, 29.339623, 28.956743 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.06, "trend_reference": 28.612337, "distance_from_trend": 0.050596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.971926, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.505113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.180037, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002366, "excess_performance": -0.185087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050646, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.505113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028131, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014693, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002366, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.56928, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 531597, "relative_activity": 0.625467, "balance": 1.56928, "dry_up": 1.087988, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042654, "annualized_volatility": 0.156441, "from_high_reference": -0.050008, "from_low_reference": 0.420865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.612337, "fair_value_reference": 19.971926, "structural_low": 26.094741, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.001359, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019986, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.161951, "worst_return": -0.095876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002861, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.055462, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.286193, "worst_return": -0.209926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072646, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.0275, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.300349, "worst_return": 0.002377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.432438, "energy": 37.210475, "activity_lines": [ 29.68417, 29.490183, 28.911144, 28.641183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.86, "volume": 1105224, "typical_volume": 887701.3, "trend": 28.369558, "fair_value": 19.756908, "relative_strength": 4.225076, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.655127, "energy": 36.930826, "activity_lines": [ 29.74472, 29.618757, 29.052714, 28.743386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.12, "volume": 850002, "typical_volume": 903051.1, "trend": 28.503401, "fair_value": 19.864429, "relative_strength": 4.283633, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.054015, "energy": 38.273723, "activity_lines": [ 29.882667, 29.753502, 29.207661, 28.856318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.06, "volume": 531597, "typical_volume": 849919.5, "trend": 28.612337, "fair_value": 19.971926, "relative_strength": -1.180037, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.31138, "energy": 38.324977, "activity_lines": [ 29.976667, 29.846904, 29.339623, 28.956743 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }