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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.855, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.875, "architecture_energy": 36.363, "architecture_maturity": 21.015, "architecture_confidence": 69.346, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.34, "rotation_up": 51.97, "upward_expansion": 74.44, "deceleration": 61.25, "rotation_down": 17.97, "downward_expansion": 3.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 123.067333, 121.868364, 118.473651, 116.665455 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 128.21, "trend_reference": 114.962233, "distance_from_trend": 0.115236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 94.596394, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.355337, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.602392, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10158, "excess_performance": -0.024045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023414, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.355337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039031, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10158, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.678327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2263256, "relative_activity": 0.929579, "balance": 2.678327, "dry_up": 0.995831, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079177, "annualized_volatility": 0.325258, "from_high_reference": -0.046837, "from_low_reference": 0.267085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.962233, "fair_value_reference": 94.596394, "structural_low": 101.185, 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"trend": 114.102889, "fair_value": 93.730139, "relative_strength": -5.199535, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.646931, "energy": 33.863539, "activity_lines": [ 119.614, 118.268727, 116.195407, 115.085221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 124.95, "volume": 2761053, "typical_volume": 2513058.7, "trend": 114.563491, "fair_value": 94.151621, "relative_strength": -1.099926, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.896801, "energy": 27.768163, "activity_lines": [ 120.783333, 119.884364, 117.226129, 115.785035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.21, "volume": 2263256, "typical_volume": 2434710.95, "trend": 114.962233, "fair_value": 94.596394, "relative_strength": -1.602392, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.874654, "energy": 36.362824, "activity_lines": [ 123.067333, 121.868364, 118.473651, 116.665455 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }