{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3e9d7d0-ac7a-4b8f-864c-447bcf0235b8", "symbol": "TCBX", "name": "Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.445, "architecture_energy": 77.494, "architecture_maturity": 12.902, "architecture_confidence": 72.853, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.55, "rotation_up": 78.35, "upward_expansion": 92.4, "deceleration": 41.94, "rotation_down": 9.02, "downward_expansion": 16.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.083333, 41.864727, 40.562286, 40.118817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.31, "trend_reference": 39.873333, "distance_from_trend": 0.111269, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.219327, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.46628, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.355303, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019558, "excess_performance": -0.106067, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.111269, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023075, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.46628, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108382, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003553, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092453, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019558, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.482236, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 534319, "relative_activity": 1.041031, "balance": 2.482236, "dry_up": 1.265667, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051837, "annualized_volatility": 0.269506, "from_high_reference": -0.014893, "from_low_reference": 0.240134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.873333, "fair_value_reference": 30.219327, "structural_low": 35.8801, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.007505, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.012473, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.284755, "worst_return": -0.149146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.042362, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.034779, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.214671, "worst_return": -0.164258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052711, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.021745, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.656508, "worst_return": -0.004103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"mixed", "direction": 20.728068, "energy": 19.031227, "activity_lines": [ 39.785333, 39.094727, 38.958524, 39.155871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 40.0, "volume": 563421, "typical_volume": 441408.55, "trend": 39.340667, "fair_value": 29.490929, "relative_strength": -6.217274, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.817277, "energy": 22.645233, "activity_lines": [ 39.964, 39.346364, 39.04319, 39.20114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.85, "volume": 549975, "typical_volume": 456929.65, "trend": 39.336667, "fair_value": 29.641378, "relative_strength": -7.683728, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.939859, "energy": 23.537108, "activity_lines": [ 39.976667, 39.525455, 39.12519, 39.234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.62, "volume": 483804, "typical_volume": 462561.85, "trend": 39.343667, "fair_value": 29.782212, "relative_strength": -4.319163, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.023598, "energy": 27.287738, "activity_lines": [ 40.203333, 39.807273, 39.290476, 39.316796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.75, "volume": 779030, "typical_volume": 485607.75, "trend": 39.455667, "fair_value": 29.92484, "relative_strength": 1.300042, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.775639, "energy": 56.684957, "activity_lines": [ 41.104, 40.437455, 39.65381, 39.536559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.84, "volume": 801309, "typical_volume": 512785.35, "trend": 39.669333, "fair_value": 30.070545, "relative_strength": 2.771289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.082739, "energy": 69.316178, "activity_lines": [ 42.117333, 41.160727, 40.101143, 39.819419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.31, "volume": 534319, "typical_volume": 513259.55, "trend": 39.873333, "fair_value": 30.219327, "relative_strength": 0.355303, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.444702, "energy": 77.494162, "activity_lines": [ 43.083333, 41.864727, 40.562286, 40.118817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }