{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3ea5672-1f42-4f09-9aab-3697552cc239", "symbol": "BFUTILITIE", "name": "BF Utilities Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.243, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.15, "architecture_energy": 16.358, "architecture_maturity": 37.235, "architecture_confidence": 79.26, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.0, "rotation_up": 23.31, "upward_expansion": 53.94, "deceleration": 88.44, "rotation_down": 30.5, "downward_expansion": 19.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 575.546659, 589.919087, 584.082381, 560.834193 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 558.599976, "trend_reference": 540.364997, "distance_from_trend": 0.033746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 724.019231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.228474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.723952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044405, "excess_performance": 0.088114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033746, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02822, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.228474, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.389791, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 251458, "relative_activity": 0.535375, "balance": 3.389791, "dry_up": 3.201856, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108795, "annualized_volatility": 0.480224, "from_high_reference": -0.378436, "from_low_reference": 0.515053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 540.364997, "fair_value_reference": 724.019231, "structural_low": 368.700012, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.031559, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.004968, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.244797, "worst_return": -0.084117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03028, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.071165, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.251459, "worst_return": -0.094176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073629, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018103, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.382017, "worst_return": -0.149363, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100074, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114972, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127166, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058382, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 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469141.25, "trend": 542.784999, "fair_value": 723.351603, "relative_strength": -6.379496, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.226467, "energy": 18.776944, "activity_lines": [ 584.976668, 598.211819, 583.41524, 559.813872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 558.599976, "volume": 251458, "typical_volume": 469685.6, "trend": 540.364997, "fair_value": 724.019231, "relative_strength": -8.723952, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.150307, "energy": 16.358319, "activity_lines": [ 575.546659, 589.919087, 584.082381, 560.834193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }