{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3ebfea7-4a58-407a-95d4-15af17206f91", "symbol": "IWD", "name": "ISHARES TRUST RUSSELL 1000 VALUE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.117, "architecture_energy": 85.998, "architecture_maturity": 41.411, "architecture_confidence": 83.184, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 78.21, "upward_expansion": 95.54, "deceleration": 43.02, "rotation_down": 18.12, "downward_expansion": 17.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 252.18, 249.003925, 242.897205, 237.118861 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 257.56, "trend_reference": 230.450034, "distance_from_trend": 0.117639, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 187.738317, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.079175, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.154841, "excess_performance": 0.029216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117639, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058987, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.37191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07493, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050792, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.810152, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6516426, "relative_activity": 0.573225, "balance": 7.810152, "dry_up": 0.769949, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020055, "annualized_volatility": 0.103592, "from_high_reference": -0.001047, "from_low_reference": 0.343797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 230.450034, "fair_value_reference": 187.738317, "structural_low": 208.005263, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.013907, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.001759, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.055548, "worst_return": -0.079388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021991, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.014535, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.096316, "worst_return": -0.052338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054747, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.025111, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126926, "worst_return": -0.013675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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227.698554, "fair_value": 186.419479, "relative_strength": 6.345142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.01381, "energy": 81.340058, "activity_lines": [ 247.348, 244.856321, 238.779819, 233.724435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 251.82, "volume": 9064093, "typical_volume": 11974011.2, "trend": 229.067843, "fair_value": 187.061985, "relative_strength": 6.523173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.198856, "energy": 80.559215, "activity_lines": [ 249.109333, 246.555903, 240.656979, 235.280658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 257.56, "volume": 6516426, "typical_volume": 11368012.2, "trend": 230.450034, "fair_value": 187.738317, "relative_strength": 5.079175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.11699, "energy": 85.997879, "activity_lines": [ 252.18, 249.003925, 242.897205, 237.118861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }