{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3ecbf6a-9759-4602-8890-3c3bc93c3437", "symbol": "ITEK", "name": "HAN-GINS Tech Megatrend Equal Weight UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.863, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.054, "architecture_energy": 24.024, "architecture_maturity": 68.316, "architecture_confidence": 83.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.89, "rotation_up": 20.35, "upward_expansion": 49.54, "deceleration": 85.13, "rotation_down": 38.0, "downward_expansion": 27.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.2152, 15.434473, 15.473914, 15.020916 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.48, "trend_reference": 14.515533, "distance_from_trend": 0.066444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.434154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.045767, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.184392, "excess_performance": 0.101508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038822, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025604, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.184392, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 167.364261, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10935, "relative_activity": 2.35526, "balance": 167.364261, "dry_up": 1.209507, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037965, "annualized_volatility": 0.265542, "from_high_reference": -0.079995, "from_low_reference": 0.255474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.515533, "fair_value_reference": 12.434154, "structural_low": 12.33, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014205, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.005708, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.079821, "worst_return": -0.143951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.124708, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.073326, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.221085, "worst_return": -0.009684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.219008, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.155626, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.274328, "worst_return": 0.031917, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176427, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053115, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009684, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": 0.536256, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.681979, "energy": 46.216358, "activity_lines": [ 15.880933, 16.0172, 15.357048, 14.848323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.756, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 3537.1, "trend": 14.406, "fair_value": 12.344231, "relative_strength": -6.538729, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.109343, "energy": 28.57286, "activity_lines": [ 15.496267, 15.796509, 15.3674, 14.872753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.068, "volume": 301, "typical_volume": 3535.4, "trend": 14.443267, "fair_value": 12.375103, "relative_strength": -4.364621, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.666627, "energy": 29.024188, "activity_lines": [ 15.280933, 15.640073, 15.399067, 14.915462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.084, "volume": 11222, "typical_volume": 4096.4, "trend": 14.4862, "fair_value": 12.404474, "relative_strength": -4.269911, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.27817, "energy": 27.637283, "activity_lines": [ 15.163067, 15.493091, 15.422381, 14.9568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.48, "volume": 10935, "typical_volume": 4642.8, "trend": 14.515533, "fair_value": 12.434154, "relative_strength": -3.045767, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.054212, "energy": 24.023776, "activity_lines": [ 15.2152, 15.434473, 15.473914, 15.020916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }