{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3f8427c-dd16-40d5-9115-f52ced1c8135", "symbol": "ACUC", "name": "AcuCort AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.778, "architecture_energy": 17.209, "architecture_maturity": 39.661, "architecture_confidence": 67.477, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.24, "rotation_up": 25.11, "upward_expansion": 17.55, "deceleration": 42.21, "rotation_down": 26.58, "downward_expansion": 53.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.6316, 0.618709, 0.641819, 0.658961 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.616, "trend_reference": 0.69, "distance_from_trend": -0.107246, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.679712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.093733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.792647, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.317829, "excess_performance": -0.379324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.093733, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317829, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568834, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1079274, "relative_activity": 0.838404, "balance": 0.568834, "dry_up": 0.738989, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13986, "annualized_volatility": 0.861987, "from_high_reference": -0.351579, "from_low_reference": 0.53616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.69, "fair_value_reference": 0.679712, "structural_low": 0.401, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.030769, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026542, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.0911, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.110852, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.442786, "worst_return": -0.574242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.098765, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.002217, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.331858, "worst_return": -0.657317, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.6874, "fair_value": 0.684701, "relative_strength": -10.105021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.215975, "energy": 28.214723, "activity_lines": [ 0.611933, 0.617164, 0.649238, 0.670092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.63, "volume": 1415224, "typical_volume": 1851632.9, "trend": 0.689433, "fair_value": 0.682817, "relative_strength": -11.910894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.683359, "energy": 17.504428, "activity_lines": [ 0.6276, 0.616091, 0.646571, 0.666389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.648, "volume": 545015, "typical_volume": 1402212.0, "trend": 0.6897, "fair_value": 0.681354, "relative_strength": -10.215903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.137866, "energy": 18.966739, "activity_lines": [ 0.637333, 0.619745, 0.645867, 0.663716 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.616, "volume": 1079274, "typical_volume": 1287295.5, "trend": 0.69, "fair_value": 0.679712, "relative_strength": -15.792647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.777913, "energy": 17.209361, "activity_lines": [ 0.6316, 0.618709, 0.641819, 0.658961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }