{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3fd75ea-0d51-4000-8d6f-bd549b9a5499", "symbol": "WUTI", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Utilities UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.803, "architecture_energy": 13.934, "architecture_maturity": 7.336, "architecture_confidence": 56.766, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.78, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 29.62, "deceleration": 55.84, "rotation_down": 43.44, "downward_expansion": 27.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.169333, 71.476546, 71.433048, 71.525097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 69.629997, "trend_reference": 71.263667, "distance_from_trend": -0.022924, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.238205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.216495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.576307, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015163, "excess_performance": -0.067721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024492, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.216495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074227, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015163, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940138, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1015, "relative_activity": 0.740525, "balance": 0.940138, "dry_up": 0.7615, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017234, "annualized_volatility": 0.155109, "from_high_reference": -0.067622, "from_low_reference": 0.13367 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.263667, "fair_value_reference": 57.238205, "structural_low": 68.639999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002723, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008269, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.067791, "worst_return": -0.111653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020354, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.013897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096089, "worst_return": -0.051441, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008003, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181937, "worst_return": -0.041064, "sufficient": 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71.435571, 71.088279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 72.75, "volume": 1173, "typical_volume": 1784.55, "trend": 70.314, "fair_value": 56.438526, "relative_strength": -4.096912, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.80004, "energy": 27.235679, "activity_lines": [ 71.631333, 71.200182, 71.524381, 71.260215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 71.650002, "volume": 287, "typical_volume": 1748.75, "trend": 70.518667, "fair_value": 56.595385, "relative_strength": -4.262463, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.420003, "energy": 27.773448, "activity_lines": [ 71.790667, 71.299273, 71.507667, 71.346408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.730003, "volume": 1905, "typical_volume": 1649.1, "trend": 70.750667, "fair_value": 56.754968, "relative_strength": -3.523711, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.681467, "energy": 46.428368, "activity_lines": [ 72.220002, 71.604728, 71.59581, 71.489075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.040001, "volume": 551, "typical_volume": 1498.05, "trend": 70.998334, "fair_value": 56.920256, "relative_strength": -2.95697, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.342877, "energy": 64.157416, "activity_lines": [ 72.588668, 71.938728, 71.722762, 71.636774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.790001, "volume": 704, "typical_volume": 1440.9, "trend": 71.152667, "fair_value": 57.082212, "relative_strength": -5.959268, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.337906, "energy": 23.194785, "activity_lines": [ 72.023335, 71.808365, 71.630191, 71.623333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.629997, "volume": 1015, "typical_volume": 1370.65, "trend": 71.263667, "fair_value": 57.238205, "relative_strength": -8.576307, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.803347, "energy": 13.934066, "activity_lines": [ 71.169333, 71.476546, 71.433048, 71.525097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }