{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e3ff7340-ecf9-4368-977f-3819a3f5f4a3", "symbol": "601965", "name": "China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.307, "architecture_energy": 24.89, "architecture_maturity": 87.432, "architecture_confidence": 80.908, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.64, "rotation_up": 28.14, "upward_expansion": 17.1, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 24.11, "downward_expansion": 62.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.932, 13.404403, 14.181913, 15.090669 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.14, "trend_reference": 16.260465, "distance_from_trend": -0.130406, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.801239, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.561177, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.253826, "excess_performance": -0.210622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070075, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155612, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887781, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70220877, "relative_activity": 1.687453, "balance": 0.887781, "dry_up": 1.372608, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098547, "annualized_volatility": 0.365151, "from_high_reference": -0.31058, "from_low_reference": 0.244623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.260465, "fair_value_reference": 17.801239, "structural_low": 11.360873, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.044586, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.03044, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.204462, "worst_return": -0.268428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030195, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.029379, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.184363, "worst_return": -0.059663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020378, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083598, "worst_return": -0.057893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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17.933131, "relative_strength": -22.781331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.133759, "energy": 77.183127, "activity_lines": [ 12.459322, 13.140074, 14.526874, 15.524394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.79, "volume": 69126385, "typical_volume": 39307104.1, "trend": 16.441798, "fair_value": 17.885324, "relative_strength": -16.294809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.800291, "energy": 56.35765, "activity_lines": [ 12.934219, 13.098911, 14.349189, 15.345138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.7, "volume": 46722701, "typical_volume": 39553421.7, "trend": 16.342465, "fair_value": 17.844077, "relative_strength": -10.483412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.855171, "energy": 35.548598, "activity_lines": [ 13.634806, 13.285384, 14.283122, 15.232764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.14, "volume": 70220877, "typical_volume": 41613532.4, "trend": 16.260465, "fair_value": 17.801239, "relative_strength": -15.561177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.306518, "energy": 24.889824, "activity_lines": [ 13.932, 13.404403, 14.181913, 15.090669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }