{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e406b3a7-8e0c-421c-93d5-1f89544c9863", "symbol": "ARML3", "name": "Armac Loca\u00e7\u00e3o, Log\u00edstica e Servi\u00e7os S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.448, "architecture_energy": 28.985, "architecture_maturity": 76.525, "architecture_confidence": 78.816, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.98, "rotation_up": 27.87, "upward_expansion": 22.85, "deceleration": 46.37, "rotation_down": 25.89, "downward_expansion": 59.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.438, 3.312909, 3.528905, 3.876731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.55, "trend_reference": 4.264333, "distance_from_trend": -0.167513, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.495359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.453456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.489656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254202, "excess_performance": -0.197153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167513, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055824, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.453456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033523, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134897, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254202, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.594892, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3740500, "relative_activity": 0.857694, "balance": 0.594892, "dry_up": 0.74825, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110293, "annualized_volatility": 0.627242, "from_high_reference": -0.436508, "from_low_reference": 0.347372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.264333, "fair_value_reference": 6.495359, "structural_low": 2.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.036161, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.039867, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.250667, "worst_return": -0.201493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.062745, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.12241, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.495739, "worst_return": -0.392357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.156228, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.257017, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.73965, "worst_return": -0.347644, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083156, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.145912, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": 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-65.986426, "energy": 74.954102, "activity_lines": [ 3.122667, 3.22, 3.79019, 4.11091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.29, "volume": 3296200, "typical_volume": 4540860.0, "trend": 4.327975, "fair_value": 6.646803, "relative_strength": -21.240119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.779624, "energy": 55.499367, "activity_lines": [ 3.178667, 3.207818, 3.69881, 4.042589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.24, "volume": 3023200, "typical_volume": 4470730.0, "trend": 4.306821, "fair_value": 6.599127, "relative_strength": -22.164932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.839629, "energy": 47.375371, "activity_lines": [ 3.215333, 3.202909, 3.615095, 3.972397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.56, "volume": 2992900, "typical_volume": 4377650.0, "trend": 4.286, "fair_value": 6.547435, "relative_strength": -16.124998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.88784, "energy": 35.941592, "activity_lines": [ 3.342667, 3.260545, 3.569762, 3.924215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.55, "volume": 3740500, "typical_volume": 4361110.0, "trend": 4.264333, "fair_value": 6.495359, "relative_strength": -13.489656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.447874, "energy": 28.985396, "activity_lines": [ 3.438, 3.312909, 3.528905, 3.876731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }