{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e40c0e15-a4e4-481c-a7b1-f67424a02a11", "symbol": "H1N", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets Swap II UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.778, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.462, "architecture_energy": 19.417, "architecture_maturity": 64.238, "architecture_confidence": 79.74, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.99, "rotation_up": 16.92, "upward_expansion": 45.61, "deceleration": 87.98, "rotation_down": 37.34, "downward_expansion": 25.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.005333, 21.370182, 21.391762, 20.974258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.25, "trend_reference": 20.423333, "distance_from_trend": 0.040477, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.179295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.399933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.511135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132126, "excess_performance": -0.022709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040477, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.399933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182624, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132126, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.471478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1849, "relative_activity": 1.605592, "balance": 1.471478, "dry_up": 0.760681, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04105, "annualized_volatility": 0.321109, "from_high_reference": -0.066344, "from_low_reference": 0.353503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.423333, "fair_value_reference": 15.179295, "structural_low": 17.549999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006365, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004943, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.037724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016191, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.001061, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.223856, "worst_return": -0.076726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049821, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040907, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.210466, "worst_return": -0.079284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052066, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.14172, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.102121, "worst_return": -0.248082, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042005, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036691, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017924, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027146, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007246, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012535, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.194708, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006326, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011628, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.0, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 1643.3, "trend": 12.107, "fair_value": 13.281859, "relative_strength": 4.118366, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging 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"fair_value": 15.019038, "relative_strength": -3.540221, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.03484, "energy": 35.799346, "activity_lines": [ 21.674, 21.820909, 21.341143, 20.83271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.5, "volume": 1018, "typical_volume": 1518.15, "trend": 20.258333, "fair_value": 15.075833, "relative_strength": -2.596846, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.557251, "energy": 24.963097, "activity_lines": [ 21.52, 21.762909, 21.419238, 20.92086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.17, "volume": 201, "typical_volume": 1317.2, "trend": 20.334, "fair_value": 15.124103, "relative_strength": -9.187542, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.930983, "energy": 18.602167, "activity_lines": [ 21.006, 21.456727, 21.356905, 20.915161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.25, "volume": 1849, "typical_volume": 1151.6, "trend": 20.423333, "fair_value": 15.179295, "relative_strength": -5.511135, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.462474, "energy": 19.416679, "activity_lines": [ 21.005333, 21.370182, 21.391762, 20.974258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }