{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4137998-4463-46e0-bc68-32775f1962f7", "symbol": "300523", "name": "Beijing Global Safety Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.335, "architecture_energy": 31.247, "architecture_maturity": 64.084, "architecture_confidence": 57.552, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.3, "rotation_up": 21.79, "upward_expansion": 14.68, "deceleration": 65.23, "rotation_down": 43.85, "downward_expansion": 64.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.01, 18.958363, 19.829143, 20.522215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.32, "trend_reference": 21.555, "distance_from_trend": -0.103688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.985385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.050171, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.168317, "excess_performance": -0.175717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072996, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170502, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050356, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168317, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.254902, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11373064, "relative_activity": 0.822425, "balance": 1.254902, "dry_up": 0.999156, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10551, "annualized_volatility": 0.404235, "from_high_reference": -0.385301, "from_low_reference": 0.143195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.555, "fair_value_reference": 20.985385, "structural_low": 16.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.011259, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.002736, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.48854, "worst_return": -0.151771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.000301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019411, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.582278, "worst_return": -0.160731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.152156, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.133953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.33502, "worst_return": -0.125213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 19.540001, "volume": 27171057, "typical_volume": 14609503.35, "trend": 22.185667, "fair_value": 21.103718, "relative_strength": -22.94951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.636618, "energy": 66.621812, "activity_lines": [ 18.992, 19.740909, 20.638143, 21.334108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.379999, "volume": 15707450, "typical_volume": 14305858.9, "trend": 22.014333, "fair_value": 21.06859, "relative_strength": -19.756542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.942036, "energy": 63.004018, "activity_lines": [ 18.744, 19.374909, 20.358381, 21.088581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.629999, "volume": 12658612, "typical_volume": 14119189.85, "trend": 21.845667, "fair_value": 21.027628, "relative_strength": -22.646167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.349003, "energy": 51.397343, "activity_lines": [ 18.340666, 18.942, 20.036333, 20.80572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.84, "volume": 15528968, "typical_volume": 13862264.85, "trend": 21.708667, "fair_value": 21.004167, "relative_strength": -11.023988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.522544, "energy": 38.364759, "activity_lines": [ 18.822666, 18.965818, 19.950381, 20.676323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.32, "volume": 11373064, "typical_volume": 13828692.9, "trend": 21.555, "fair_value": 20.985385, "relative_strength": -17.050171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.335238, "energy": 31.247079, "activity_lines": [ 19.01, 18.958363, 19.829143, 20.522215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }