{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4137c56-89ea-4c80-be1c-68f82ed38822", "symbol": "NZK", "name": "New Zealand King Salmon Investments Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.063, "architecture_energy": 21.755, "architecture_maturity": 36.4, "architecture_confidence": 85.726, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.83, "rotation_up": 35.71, "upward_expansion": 58.58, "deceleration": 81.17, "rotation_down": 27.2, "downward_expansion": 19.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.231, 0.231182, 0.230424, 0.225366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.235, "trend_reference": 0.2191, "distance_from_trend": 0.07257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.228788, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.988381, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093023, "excess_performance": 0.06475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034222, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.069884, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000365, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093023, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.656039, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1048418, "relative_activity": 1.943286, "balance": 0.656039, "dry_up": 1.507969, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052373, "annualized_volatility": 0.451165, "from_high_reference": -0.078431, "from_low_reference": 0.243386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2191, "fair_value_reference": 0.228788, "structural_low": 0.189, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.017393, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.021739, "worst_return": -0.106383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.038416, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.021277, "worst_return": -0.055556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.098109, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.122996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.085106, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.188337, 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"New", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.23, "volume": 276867, "typical_volume": 421940.5, "trend": 0.2149, "fair_value": 0.228179, "relative_strength": 4.938408, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.016878, "energy": 22.662313, "activity_lines": [ 0.231667, 0.233273, 0.22739, 0.221869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.23, "volume": 463719, "typical_volume": 425272.45, "trend": 0.215967, "fair_value": 0.228308, "relative_strength": 5.622505, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.338664, "energy": 23.866748, "activity_lines": [ 0.231, 0.232909, 0.228281, 0.222843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.22, "volume": 1635575, "typical_volume": 498798.7, "trend": 0.216833, "fair_value": 0.228404, "relative_strength": 0.599824, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.746316, "energy": 16.381207, "activity_lines": [ 0.227333, 0.230636, 0.228148, 0.223103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.235, "volume": 106534, "typical_volume": 489581.55, "trend": 0.2181, "fair_value": 0.228596, "relative_strength": 8.048434, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.801239, "energy": 20.004398, "activity_lines": [ 0.229333, 0.231091, 0.229371, 0.224275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.235, "volume": 1048418, "typical_volume": 539507.95, "trend": 0.2191, "fair_value": 0.228788, "relative_strength": 6.988381, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.062719, "energy": 21.755405, "activity_lines": [ 0.231, 0.231182, 0.230424, 0.225366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }