{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e415f717-d2ab-440f-b24d-5d23031ea073", "symbol": "4568", "name": "Koge Micro Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 73.511, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.561, "architecture_energy": 11.144, "architecture_maturity": 9.978, "architecture_confidence": 60.579, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.26, "rotation_up": 25.75, "upward_expansion": 18.19, "deceleration": 48.03, "rotation_down": 31.97, "downward_expansion": 56.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.300001, 39.30329, 39.205586, 39.373172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.450001, "trend_reference": 39.650442, "distance_from_trend": -0.005055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.879898, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120987, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.531517, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00274, "excess_performance": -0.444112, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005055, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045425, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083245, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00274, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.603251, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48002, "relative_activity": 0.764205, "balance": 1.603251, "dry_up": 0.553293, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03375, "annualized_volatility": 0.168979, "from_high_reference": -0.09813, "from_low_reference": 0.058317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.650442, "fair_value_reference": 44.879898, "structural_low": 37.276169, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.021818, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.039733, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.051625, "worst_return": -0.065693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022388, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.081856, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.030003, "worst_return": -0.091099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01604, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.095505, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.033818, "worst_return": 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"direction": -25.60964, "energy": 11.044267, "activity_lines": [ 39.224293, 39.220446, 39.185271, 39.408385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.400002, "volume": 19000, "typical_volume": 62112.9, "trend": 39.684167, "fair_value": 44.942853, "relative_strength": -29.129433, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.552643, "energy": 10.728884, "activity_lines": [ 39.261213, 39.267985, 39.191538, 39.388279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 39.450001, "volume": 48002, "typical_volume": 62813.0, "trend": 39.650442, "fair_value": 44.879898, "relative_strength": -30.531517, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.561416, "energy": 11.144008, "activity_lines": [ 39.300001, 39.30329, 39.205586, 39.373172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }