{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4172bc4-5c70-4fa5-860c-1de338b85fe7", "symbol": "EMESG", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Selection - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.066, "architecture_energy": 19.289, "architecture_maturity": 25.586, "architecture_confidence": 75.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.35, "rotation_up": 18.61, "upward_expansion": 43.4, "deceleration": 84.29, "rotation_down": 43.82, "downward_expansion": 35.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.681334, 69.668546, 70.051286, 69.275398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 69.739998, "trend_reference": 68.402667, "distance_from_trend": 0.019551, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.114263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242821, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.112324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041362, "excess_performance": -0.12953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033642, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242821, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091123, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103185, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041362, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.56795, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42982, "relative_activity": 1.319393, "balance": 0.56795, "dry_up": 1.730725, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041715, "annualized_volatility": 0.209784, "from_high_reference": -0.061499, "from_low_reference": 0.201585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.402667, "fair_value_reference": 56.114263, "structural_low": 61.720001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001341, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006861, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.055951, "worst_return": -0.02412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016752, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073805, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.037659, "worst_return": -0.049027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06223, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084955, "worst_return": 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71.862667, 71.614, 70.282572, 69.224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.540001, "volume": 76184, "typical_volume": 28288.75, "trend": 68.003667, "fair_value": 55.736923, "relative_strength": -9.268351, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.947441, "energy": 14.401447, "activity_lines": [ 70.394001, 70.908001, 70.166762, 69.203484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.290001, "volume": 32032, "typical_volume": 28705.6, "trend": 68.179333, "fair_value": 55.856026, "relative_strength": -7.997077, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.227918, "energy": 16.370851, "activity_lines": [ 69.414001, 70.414364, 70.123667, 69.221957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.540001, "volume": 74330, "typical_volume": 31757.95, "trend": 68.272334, "fair_value": 55.977308, "relative_strength": -9.48904, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.472268, "energy": 17.014961, "activity_lines": [ 68.566668, 69.815637, 69.989572, 69.18071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.739998, "volume": 42982, "typical_volume": 32577.1, "trend": 68.402667, "fair_value": 56.114263, "relative_strength": -9.112324, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.066347, "energy": 19.288561, "activity_lines": [ 68.681334, 69.668546, 70.051286, 69.275398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }