{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e418504d-b8a4-4a92-961e-c583d33d09f2", "symbol": "AIG", "name": "American International Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.668, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.895, "architecture_energy": 44.598, "architecture_maturity": 6.614, "architecture_confidence": 77.074, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.6, "rotation_up": 55.31, "upward_expansion": 79.14, "deceleration": 52.43, "rotation_down": 14.11, "downward_expansion": 8.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.038, 78.414082, 77.307129, 76.892521 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 78.78, "trend_reference": 76.287667, "distance_from_trend": 0.03267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.976478, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079526, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.172664, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.039785, "excess_performance": -0.08584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03267, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011673, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091727, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047301, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.50453, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16135499, "relative_activity": 0.831764, "balance": 1.50453, "dry_up": 0.868959, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04483, "annualized_volatility": 0.180023, "from_high_reference": -0.086123, "from_low_reference": 0.11969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.287667, "fair_value_reference": 72.976478, "structural_low": 71.671425, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.010146, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.002548, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.113649, "worst_return": -0.083437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.054145, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.007368, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.155398, "worst_return": -0.094156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021252, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057915, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.222248, "worst_return": -0.110189, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 20198581.75, "trend": 76.299449, "fair_value": 72.695066, "relative_strength": -5.204803, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.186601, "energy": 56.609226, "activity_lines": [ 79.277333, 77.775317, 76.849458, 76.575371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.58, "volume": 15593706, "typical_volume": 19849125.55, "trend": 76.144724, "fair_value": 72.834651, "relative_strength": -6.52969, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.68151, "energy": 56.02323, "activity_lines": [ 79.224667, 78.095073, 77.075424, 76.722503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.78, "volume": 16135499, "typical_volume": 19399133.0, "trend": 76.287667, "fair_value": 72.976478, "relative_strength": -9.172664, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.894536, "energy": 44.598495, "activity_lines": [ 79.038, 78.414082, 77.307129, 76.892521 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }