{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e41f0d9b-725e-4821-b8b2-e45e32395351", "symbol": "HAS", "name": "Hasbro, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.106, "architecture_energy": 28.919, "architecture_maturity": 61.19, "architecture_confidence": 62.939, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.74, "rotation_up": 63.6, "upward_expansion": 34.54, "deceleration": 38.2, "rotation_down": 20.13, "downward_expansion": 28.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.265335, 75.716728, 75.879686, 76.739531 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 80.800003, "trend_reference": 77.490614, "distance_from_trend": 0.042707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.561877, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.125859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022733, "excess_performance": -0.151514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379737, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022733, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708601, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.708601, "dry_up": 1.891707, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048575, "annualized_volatility": 0.273747, "from_high_reference": -0.083087, "from_low_reference": 0.352679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.490614, "fair_value_reference": 58.561877, "structural_low": 66.339996, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.016471, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.011571, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.266231, "worst_return": -0.186635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.164225, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.096933, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.500998, "worst_return": -0.179929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.151743, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.189314, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.445089, "worst_return": -0.262754, "sufficient": true }, { 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74.859316, 76.124001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.559998, "volume": 202, "typical_volume": 67.45, "trend": 76.834173, "fair_value": 58.183766, "relative_strength": -10.464082, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.907909, "energy": 39.616434, "activity_lines": [ 72.823999, 72.876167, 74.956474, 76.191134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.800003, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 72.95, "trend": 77.265685, "fair_value": 58.381328, "relative_strength": -5.41507, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.077916, "energy": 10.616036, "activity_lines": [ 75.922667, 74.434182, 75.468812, 76.51151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 72.95, "trend": 77.490614, "fair_value": 58.561877, "relative_strength": -9.125859, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.106087, "energy": 28.919454, "activity_lines": [ 78.265335, 75.716728, 75.879686, 76.739531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }