{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4205d70-4ff7-4104-9bae-0c05795ff1fb", "symbol": "603321", "name": "Zhejiang Meilun Elevator Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.317, "architecture_energy": 53.353, "architecture_maturity": 83.897, "architecture_confidence": 93.662, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 26.39, "upward_expansion": 8.95, "deceleration": 60.33, "rotation_down": 52.54, "downward_expansion": 82.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.899333, 5.939162, 6.315274, 6.64078 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.11, "trend_reference": 7.098683, "distance_from_trend": -0.139277, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.206051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152101, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.328851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.213642, "excess_performance": -0.170438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139277, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083667, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152101, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201001, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213642, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.317018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20644371, "relative_activity": 1.151352, "balance": 0.317018, "dry_up": 1.24148, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073985, "annualized_volatility": 0.301376, "from_high_reference": -0.340885, "from_low_reference": 0.142056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.098683, "fair_value_reference": 7.206051, "structural_low": 5.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.012255, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.005014, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.192956, "worst_return": -0.139855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046368, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.08369, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.190779, "worst_return": -0.188446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097229, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.049233, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.24744, "worst_return": -0.047536, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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7.104484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.87, "volume": 18040400, "typical_volume": 19235188.5, "trend": 7.36135, "fair_value": 7.244487, "relative_strength": -25.152133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.643624, "energy": 87.854326, "activity_lines": [ 5.999242, 6.253931, 6.697903, 7.003902 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.81, "volume": 21955299, "typical_volume": 19175525.75, "trend": 7.30635, "fair_value": 7.234207, "relative_strength": -20.802284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.902977, "energy": 81.341926, "activity_lines": [ 5.915333, 6.12044, 6.581281, 6.903815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.63, "volume": 27694478, "typical_volume": 19038124.35, "trend": 7.237683, "fair_value": 7.223627, "relative_strength": -23.585946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.34514, "energy": 66.360847, "activity_lines": [ 5.804, 5.987091, 6.458612, 6.795664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.89, "volume": 18747564, "typical_volume": 18398241.55, "trend": 7.163017, "fair_value": 7.214286, "relative_strength": -19.805886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.837508, "energy": 61.323593, "activity_lines": [ 5.814667, 5.931567, 6.371324, 6.708716 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.11, "volume": 20644371, "typical_volume": 17930550.4, "trend": 7.098683, "fair_value": 7.206051, "relative_strength": -18.328851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.316964, "energy": 53.353472, "activity_lines": [ 5.899333, 5.939162, 6.315274, 6.64078 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }