{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4227d02-acf5-43f6-adc4-5630bde8e853", "symbol": "002643", "name": "Valiant Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.764, "architecture_energy": 52.637, "architecture_maturity": 12.858, "architecture_confidence": 68.523, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.05, "rotation_up": 10.79, "upward_expansion": 8.61, "deceleration": 45.31, "rotation_down": 71.12, "downward_expansion": 77.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.762, 15.298307, 15.859205, 16.072995 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.15, "trend_reference": 16.3722, "distance_from_trend": -0.13573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.222205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070169, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.709895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17203, "excess_performance": -0.17943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070169, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196497, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17203, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.555759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121582766, "relative_activity": 1.281814, "balance": 0.555759, "dry_up": 1.457083, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155582, "annualized_volatility": 0.60147, "from_high_reference": -0.337237, "from_low_reference": 0.159836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.3722, "fair_value_reference": 13.222205, "structural_low": 12.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.003769, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.002561, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.280101, "worst_return": -0.215006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000643, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.043854, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.581936, "worst_return": -0.303684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.047221, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066903, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.127331, "worst_return": -0.281812, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007287, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11811, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.177762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.167533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 17.298667, 16.989938, 16.750576, 16.69869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.82, "volume": 152813188, "typical_volume": 89588987.3, "trend": 16.4962, "fair_value": 13.270342, "relative_strength": -15.548918, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.437667, "energy": 35.325192, "activity_lines": [ 15.610667, 16.259436, 16.393786, 16.457924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.78, "volume": 121127602, "typical_volume": 92163577.75, "trend": 16.4002, "fair_value": 13.24281, "relative_strength": -14.278821, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.252453, "energy": 53.176565, "activity_lines": [ 14.236, 15.614489, 16.05209, 16.21817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.15, "volume": 121582766, "typical_volume": 94852140.25, "trend": 16.3722, "fair_value": 13.222205, "relative_strength": -9.709895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.764025, "energy": 52.637051, "activity_lines": [ 13.762, 15.298307, 15.859205, 16.072995 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }