{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e429d6fe-7827-4b93-a8c8-9b3c845cce10",
    "symbol": "SPHR",
    "name": "Sphere Entertainment Co.",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.392,
    "architecture_energy": 24.735,
    "architecture_maturity": 73.258,
    "architecture_confidence": 96,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.11,
        "rotation_up": 29.71,
        "upward_expansion": 57.44,
        "deceleration": 88.21,
        "rotation_down": 31.16,
        "downward_expansion": 21.11
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        147.528,
        150.520182,
        146.59981,
        139.767656
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 159.54,
    "trend_reference": 129.315,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.233732,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 60.733718,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.626877,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 38.492474,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.711619,
    "excess_performance": 0.585994,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.233732,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.200704,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.626877,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016857,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.384925,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.172611,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.711619,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.111715,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3961425,
      "relative_activity": 1.135835,
      "balance": 2.111715,
      "dry_up": 1.042607,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.097439,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.540986,
      "from_high_reference": -0.086254,
      "from_low_reference": 3.21061
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 129.315,
      "fair_value_reference": 60.733718,
      "structural_low": 92.24,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.061742,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.093529,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.406265,
        "worst_return": -0.446176,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.008586,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.047056,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.78992,
        "worst_return": -0.404745,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.114659,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031791,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.690532,
        "worst_return": -0.305418,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.222606,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.413885,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.171388,
        "worst_return": -0.273824,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-08",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.207137,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.108122,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.179726,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.019731,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.049184,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.100238,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.125876,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.080312,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.109856,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.173886,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043171,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.151672,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 1.336019,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.113717,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 3776487.55,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 2547877,
        "typical_volume": 3751296.65,
        "trend": 124.113,
        "fair_value": 58.691987,
        "relative_strength": 35.498914,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.761891,
        "energy": 46.326333,
        "activity_lines": [
          152.953333,
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          135.753204
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 136.26,
        "volume": 2753633,
        "typical_volume": 3695283.4,
        "trend": 125.540667,
        "fair_value": 59.289423,
        "relative_strength": 28.213743,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.110526,
        "energy": 22.581914,
        "activity_lines": [
          146.254,
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          136.536882
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 143.25,
        "volume": 5282176,
        "typical_volume": 3680755.05,
        "trend": 127.172333,
        "fair_value": 59.965962,
        "relative_strength": 31.128048,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.799028,
        "energy": 24.168355,
        "activity_lines": [
          143.289333,
          148.649818,
          144.601524,
          137.679419
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 159.54,
        "volume": 3961425,
        "typical_volume": 3487677.15,
        "trend": 129.315,
        "fair_value": 60.733718,
        "relative_strength": 38.492474,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.392466,
        "energy": 24.73484,
        "activity_lines": [
          147.528,
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          139.767656
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}