{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e42b63a8-eb42-4918-8ba9-8b33852249f1", "symbol": "002712", "name": "Simei Media Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.178, "architecture_energy": 34.683, "architecture_maturity": 86.482, "architecture_confidence": 64.179, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.43, "rotation_up": 25.57, "upward_expansion": 16.39, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 43.11, "downward_expansion": 68.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.491333, 4.433636, 4.706714, 4.933484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.75, "trend_reference": 5.307333, "distance_from_trend": -0.105012, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.329551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.290309, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.28356, "excess_performance": -0.290959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105012, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108743, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.410494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102529750, "relative_activity": 1.58433, "balance": 0.410494, "dry_up": 1.4732, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09749, "annualized_volatility": 0.374636, "from_high_reference": -0.388674, "from_low_reference": 0.196474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.307333, "fair_value_reference": 5.329551, "structural_low": 3.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.030233, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.025609, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.522936, "worst_return": -0.182994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.095349, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.071779, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.716253, "worst_return": -0.321495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.076355, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.124393, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.592798, "worst_return": -0.389171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.24, "volume": 88646802, "typical_volume": 61001083.8, "trend": 5.400333, "fair_value": 5.3675, "relative_strength": -24.407822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.61567, "energy": 80.809082, "activity_lines": [ 4.286667, 4.502, 4.84919, 5.103097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.01, "volume": 78681364, "typical_volume": 59994127.55, "trend": 5.354333, "fair_value": 5.351923, "relative_strength": -28.04448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.673334, "energy": 74.345014, "activity_lines": [ 4.185333, 4.369455, 4.75, 5.013398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 111494006, "typical_volume": 62539275.55, "trend": 5.334333, "fair_value": 5.339808, "relative_strength": -13.67042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.249425, "energy": 49.183749, "activity_lines": [ 4.346667, 4.391273, 4.724143, 4.971183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.75, "volume": 102529750, "typical_volume": 64714902.8, "trend": 5.307333, "fair_value": 5.329551, "relative_strength": -16.290309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.177873, "energy": 34.682622, "activity_lines": [ 4.491333, 4.433636, 4.706714, 4.933484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }