{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e42fed03-f8e1-43a7-93d8-e170d20ad5a0", "symbol": "RAND", "name": "Rand Capital Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.401, "architecture_energy": 41.753, "architecture_maturity": 37.903, "architecture_confidence": 94.461, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.4, "rotation_up": 23.17, "upward_expansion": 6.16, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 50.08, "downward_expansion": 79.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.142667, 10.166695, 10.304303, 10.464338 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.29, "trend_reference": 10.625021, "distance_from_trend": -0.031531, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.101034, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149659, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.798678, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005222, "excess_performance": -0.192676, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031531, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063068, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149659, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227987, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079974, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8007, "relative_activity": 0.616711, "balance": 0.754295, "dry_up": 0.740638, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035199, "annualized_volatility": 0.166895, "from_high_reference": -0.358822, "from_low_reference": 0.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.625021, "fair_value_reference": 12.101034, "structural_low": 9.963818, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.007828, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.023171, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.198454, "worst_return": -0.182258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.032421, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.061436, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.081161, "worst_return": -0.116932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04651, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.227511, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.036144, "worst_return": -0.19935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 14865.0, "trend": 10.67893, "fair_value": 12.079904, "relative_strength": -22.004208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.12967, "energy": 44.678709, "activity_lines": [ 10.148667, 10.196293, 10.386363, 10.530391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.01, "volume": 18740, "typical_volume": 14452.0, "trend": 10.644889, "fair_value": 12.089769, "relative_strength": -22.028925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.506046, "energy": 54.52274, "activity_lines": [ 10.092667, 10.151702, 10.329496, 10.487235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.29, "volume": 8007, "typical_volume": 12983.4, "trend": 10.625021, "fair_value": 12.101034, "relative_strength": -22.798678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.401468, "energy": 41.753144, "activity_lines": [ 10.142667, 10.166695, 10.304303, 10.464338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }