{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e43114ab-4ab0-40e6-bf9c-868924266f97", "symbol": "002926", "name": "HUAXI Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.477, "architecture_energy": 15.626, "architecture_maturity": 24.692, "architecture_confidence": 70.694, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.32, "rotation_up": 32.39, "upward_expansion": 18.83, "deceleration": 43.33, "rotation_down": 19.81, "downward_expansion": 50.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.291934, 8.22059, 8.229003, 8.324513 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.26, "trend_reference": 8.512794, "distance_from_trend": -0.029696, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.268531, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.672265, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104121, "excess_performance": -0.111521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029696, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053863, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051388, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126723, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11468, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.478429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73362849, "relative_activity": 1.050323, "balance": 0.478429, "dry_up": 1.337871, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046001, "annualized_volatility": 0.145206, "from_high_reference": -0.264628, "from_low_reference": 0.065806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.512794, "fair_value_reference": 8.268531, "structural_low": 7.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.032356, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.035495, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.107784, "worst_return": -0.085055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006782, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.040202, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.21464, "worst_return": -0.236726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035154, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.067124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218366, "worst_return": -0.160084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057572, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160213, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127792, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.271, "volume": 98337204, "typical_volume": 69961162.8, "trend": 8.621094, "fair_value": 8.266476, "relative_strength": -11.057536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.924875, "energy": 22.005773, "activity_lines": [ 8.168588, 8.115325, 8.229338, 8.377353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.271, "volume": 117965158, "typical_volume": 70073605.3, "trend": 8.582127, "fair_value": 8.267034, "relative_strength": -10.773201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.83439, "energy": 17.660585, "activity_lines": [ 8.218734, 8.143819, 8.223229, 8.354766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.4, "volume": 84124491, "typical_volume": 70226709.55, "trend": 8.546794, "fair_value": 8.267856, "relative_strength": -7.305676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.375553, "energy": 14.837005, "activity_lines": [ 8.29048, 8.197205, 8.231926, 8.343016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.26, "volume": 73362849, "typical_volume": 69847861.3, "trend": 8.512794, "fair_value": 8.268531, "relative_strength": -12.672265, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.477195, "energy": 15.625644, "activity_lines": [ 8.291934, 8.22059, 8.229003, 8.324513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }