{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e431dae8-eea5-4a3b-8d49-cd4f683c5dc4", "symbol": "ALC", "name": "Algoma Central Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.548, "architecture_energy": 52.395, "architecture_maturity": 38.926, "architecture_confidence": 79.473, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.88, "rotation_up": 64.15, "upward_expansion": 80.61, "deceleration": 55.6, "rotation_down": 15.93, "downward_expansion": 7.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.3, 23.032, 22.563589, 22.190129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.469999, "trend_reference": 21.599954, "distance_from_trend": 0.086576, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.767885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.488468, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.672048, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.152973, "excess_performance": 0.032551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086576, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072054, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.488468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029776, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05672, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152973, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.238049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24200, "relative_activity": 0.940354, "balance": 1.238049, "dry_up": 0.961725, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03919, "annualized_volatility": 0.268188, "from_high_reference": -0.021676, "from_low_reference": 0.482872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.599954, "fair_value_reference": 15.767885, "structural_low": 19.384872, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.005917, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": 0.000923, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.110486, "worst_return": -0.036782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.019138, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.000198, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.1772, "worst_return": -0.11536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0117, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.0298, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.247308, "worst_return": -0.066962, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 33100, "typical_volume": 27155.0, "trend": 21.308629, "fair_value": 15.64199, "relative_strength": 7.718659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.476917, "energy": 74.169663, "activity_lines": [ 23.206667, 22.779091, 22.321174, 21.952211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.98, "volume": 27200, "typical_volume": 26325.0, "trend": 21.453646, "fair_value": 15.703145, "relative_strength": 7.09981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.650876, "energy": 64.242381, "activity_lines": [ 23.202667, 22.874, 22.425351, 22.060042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.469999, "volume": 24200, "typical_volume": 25735.0, "trend": 21.599954, "fair_value": 15.767885, "relative_strength": 5.672048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.547822, "energy": 52.395212, "activity_lines": [ 23.3, 23.032, 22.563589, 22.190129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }