{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4339ce3-4b73-404d-bf47-3b75f0bccd8f", "symbol": "RPC", "name": "Ridgepost Capital, Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.677, "architecture_energy": 49.244, "architecture_maturity": 28.195, "architecture_confidence": 50.151, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.68, "rotation_up": 62.97, "upward_expansion": 56.93, "deceleration": 25.23, "rotation_down": 20.72, "downward_expansion": 19.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.680667, 8.425273, 8.265034, 8.170466 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.99, "trend_reference": 8.343838, "distance_from_trend": 0.077442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.881314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.406906, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110254, "excess_performance": -0.235879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077442, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057811, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090202, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047461, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.496112, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3000431, "relative_activity": 1.14724, "balance": 1.496112, "dry_up": 1.000598, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0808, "annualized_volatility": 0.414236, "from_high_reference": -0.291521, "from_low_reference": 0.330402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.343838, "fair_value_reference": 9.881314, "structural_low": 6.757356, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0254, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.009849, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.182039, "worst_return": -0.209108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.140369, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.19258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.320115, "worst_return": -0.280128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036898, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099475, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.573665, "worst_return": -0.210038, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 3010840.2, "trend": 8.511891, "fair_value": 9.950504, "relative_strength": -25.16765, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.855974, "energy": 20.681324, "activity_lines": [ 7.943333, 8.046165, 7.955708, 8.106486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.76, "volume": 2800098, "typical_volume": 2977673.05, "trend": 8.476666, "fair_value": 9.935971, "relative_strength": -15.991587, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.183614, "energy": 3.171827, "activity_lines": [ 8.196, 8.156558, 8.045105, 8.122493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.42, "volume": 2410409, "typical_volume": 2900450.95, "trend": 8.424495, "fair_value": 9.918584, "relative_strength": -17.895459, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.147739, "energy": 9.875426, "activity_lines": [ 8.303333, 8.204185, 8.098651, 8.118838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.62, "volume": 2256711, "typical_volume": 2719035.4, "trend": 8.385264, "fair_value": 9.901189, "relative_strength": -15.98577, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.71771, "energy": 28.869024, "activity_lines": [ 8.459333, 8.284545, 8.167687, 8.131451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.99, "volume": 3000431, "typical_volume": 2615348.1, "trend": 8.343838, "fair_value": 9.881314, "relative_strength": -14.406906, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.67683, "energy": 49.243757, "activity_lines": [ 8.680667, 8.425273, 8.265034, 8.170466 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }