{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e438b717-f543-4701-a97e-aea16fc7d304", "symbol": "NEL", "name": "Nel ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.764, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.846, "architecture_energy": 47.541, "architecture_maturity": 14.615, "architecture_confidence": 71.877, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.98, "rotation_up": 16.01, "upward_expansion": 24.29, "deceleration": 51.76, "rotation_down": 66.16, "downward_expansion": 53.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.15, 2.231636, 2.506433, 2.481645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.16, "trend_reference": 2.420667, "distance_from_trend": -0.107684, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.08859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.4717, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.206811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015992, "excess_performance": -0.109001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107684, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001158, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.4717, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050133, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251902, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.151747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13003875, "relative_activity": 0.597894, "balance": 3.151747, "dry_up": 0.53443, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158298, "annualized_volatility": 0.634998, "from_high_reference": -0.453856, "from_low_reference": 0.125586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.420667, "fair_value_reference": 4.08859, "structural_low": 1.919, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.022665, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.061245, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.078497, "worst_return": -0.059676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.227227, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.224073, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.057292, "worst_return": -0.397162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.459678, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.532942, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.434077, "worst_return": -0.485279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152066, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175485, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.177881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129808, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": -19.752581, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.457895, "energy": 34.750489, "activity_lines": [ 2.235333, 2.506091, 2.621786, 2.535865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.13, "volume": 9087668, "typical_volume": 25161060.45, "trend": 2.428633, "fair_value": 4.220641, "relative_strength": -20.653667, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.962441, "energy": 45.197977, "activity_lines": [ 2.182, 2.389455, 2.581686, 2.516275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.155, "volume": 9189325, "typical_volume": 25009938.95, "trend": 2.423133, "fair_value": 4.152436, "relative_strength": -19.593435, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.799843, "energy": 46.464631, "activity_lines": [ 2.159333, 2.297182, 2.543967, 2.498622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.16, "volume": 13003875, "typical_volume": 21749465.7, "trend": 2.420667, "fair_value": 4.08859, "relative_strength": -19.206811, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.846457, "energy": 47.541471, "activity_lines": [ 2.15, 2.231636, 2.506433, 2.481645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }