{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e43cfbc4-32bb-4cea-8fb9-aa23d10f6dc0", "symbol": "DTOL", "name": "D2L Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.652, "architecture_energy": 15.897, "architecture_maturity": 23.258, "architecture_confidence": 46.236, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.44, "rotation_up": 20.31, "upward_expansion": 23.49, "deceleration": 66.38, "rotation_down": 49.74, "downward_expansion": 32.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.580667, 9.819818, 9.674238, 9.540645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.45, "trend_reference": 9.664, "distance_from_trend": -0.022144, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.478686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242709, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.330318, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.148649, "excess_performance": -0.26907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022144, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158701, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242709, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.343303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052873, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148649, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229043, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28300, "relative_activity": 0.147557, "balance": 0.229043, "dry_up": 0.646801, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069271, "annualized_volatility": 0.385816, "from_high_reference": -0.503937, "from_low_reference": 0.321678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.664, "fair_value_reference": 12.478686, "structural_low": 7.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0375, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.008786, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.298182, "worst_return": -0.120603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129878, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.077854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.313939, "worst_return": -0.007538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.053165, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046375, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042424, "worst_return": -0.0707, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.105653, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.305153, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081013, "worst_return": -0.292318, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.116856, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203883, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099252, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046601, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180318, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167015, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.186957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.34, "volume": 134400, "typical_volume": 59505.0, "trend": 8.305, "fair_value": 9.134787, "relative_strength": 13.873539, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.58659, "energy": 23.188859, "activity_lines": [ 8.066667, 8.316, 8.376619, 8.273097 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 7.0, "volume": 47100, "typical_volume": 47680.0, "trend": 8.124, "fair_value": 9.077959, "relative_strength": -8.963921, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.757096, "energy": 54.024123, "activity_lines": [ 7.686, 8.040182, 8.257762, 8.196903 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 7.0, "volume": 17500, "typical_volume": 47485.0, "trend": 8.084, "fair_value": 9.05697, "relative_strength": -5.190558, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.277069, "energy": 62.864751, "activity_lines": [ 7.398667, 7.797091, 8.141952, 8.124387 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 7.0, "volume": 13400, "typical_volume": 46165.0, "trend": 8.032333, "fair_value": 9.0364, "relative_strength": -4.168167, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.989522, "energy": 68.928514, "activity_lines": [ 7.200667, 7.582727, 8.030429, 8.054452 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 6.88, "volume": 90400, "typical_volume": 49850.0, "trend": 8.001333, "fair_value": 9.015049, "relative_strength": -4.538882, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.876545, "energy": 80.42501, "activity_lines": [ 7.026667, 7.400182, 7.911762, 7.980108 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 7.26, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 44290.0, "trend": 7.989667, "fair_value": 8.997843, "relative_strength": -0.740561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.157991, "energy": 69.636567, "activity_lines": [ 7.054667, 7.318545, 7.833905, 7.93228 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", 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9.629591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.71, "volume": 125000, "typical_volume": 196645.0, "trend": 9.946667, "fair_value": 12.466827, "relative_strength": -32.682404, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.256454, "energy": 20.794563, "activity_lines": [ 10.003333, 10.002545, 9.655952, 9.605247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.3, "volume": 127100, "typical_volume": 196860.0, "trend": 9.804667, "fair_value": 12.471955, "relative_strength": -34.265489, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.910927, "energy": 8.87625, "activity_lines": [ 9.738667, 9.900545, 9.658905, 9.563527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.45, "volume": 28300, "typical_volume": 191790.0, "trend": 9.664, "fair_value": 12.478686, "relative_strength": -34.330318, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.651508, "energy": 15.897115, "activity_lines": [ 9.580667, 9.819818, 9.674238, 9.540645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }