{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e441b18f-50d0-4782-b85a-31f158ed28b2", "symbol": "IBI-F161", "name": "Psagot Mutual Funds Ltd. - I.B.I. SAL (6A) Short TA-90 (2579.584) IL", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.365, "architecture_energy": 53.067, "architecture_maturity": 9.724, "architecture_confidence": 71.833, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.56, "rotation_up": 62.63, "upward_expansion": 82.8, "deceleration": 49.95, "rotation_down": 13.95, "downward_expansion": 9.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.628733, 0.622709, 0.608643, 0.603985 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.64, "trend_reference": 0.597267, "distance_from_trend": 0.071548, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.560647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.589914, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.407749, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081081, "excess_performance": 0.052181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071548, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085069, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.589914, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087209, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214077, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.307297, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081081, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.295518, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6739951, "relative_activity": 0.885331, "balance": 3.295518, "dry_up": 0.566341, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042909, "annualized_volatility": 0.271837, "from_high_reference": -0.423423, "from_low_reference": 0.196262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.597267, "fair_value_reference": 1.560647, "structural_low": 0.535, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.019898, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03173, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.241144, "worst_return": -0.161844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.115676, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.155153, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.18233, "worst_return": -0.17561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.070464, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.154578, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.038137, "worst_return": -0.492063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.13624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.307121, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06918, "worst_return": -0.341661, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009653, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.346389, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031981, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.687629, "energy": 38.091866, "activity_lines": [ 0.618067, 0.612109, 0.602048, 0.598987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.63, "volume": 4073940, "typical_volume": 7720948.65, "trend": 0.595067, "fair_value": 1.571096, "relative_strength": -23.874378, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.629293, "energy": 45.355588, "activity_lines": [ 0.621533, 0.616873, 0.604933, 0.601086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.64, "volume": 6739951, "typical_volume": 7612915.85, "trend": 0.597267, "fair_value": 1.560647, "relative_strength": -21.407749, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.364917, "energy": 53.066669, "activity_lines": [ 0.628733, 0.622709, 0.608643, 0.603985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }