{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4491585-e1de-4831-b506-c1145bcc8944", "symbol": "WEB3", "name": "ETC Group Web 3.0 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.854, "architecture_energy": 16.219, "architecture_maturity": 29.452, "architecture_confidence": 63.386, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.5, "rotation_up": 22.75, "upward_expansion": 15.04, "deceleration": 62.07, "rotation_down": 34.32, "downward_expansion": 60.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.272733, 9.211855, 9.406567, 9.443774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.738, "trend_reference": 9.596133, "distance_from_trend": 0.014784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.160872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.659348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002867, "excess_performance": -0.173759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068457, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041618, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002867, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.591219, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6421, "relative_activity": 2.04253, "balance": 0.591219, "dry_up": 3.246386, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058794, "annualized_volatility": 0.353858, "from_high_reference": -0.288782, "from_low_reference": 0.189737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.596133, "fair_value_reference": 10.160872, "structural_low": 8.185, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019609, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.026059, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.169193, "worst_return": -0.153682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.077488, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.139142, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.349276, "worst_return": -0.127713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.118975, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016221, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.433255, "worst_return": -0.195304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -28.056956, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.854686, "energy": 56.073659, "activity_lines": [ 9.124733, 9.484127, 9.515133, 9.62274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.301, "volume": 2016, "typical_volume": 1350.05, "trend": 9.849833, "fair_value": 10.129513, "relative_strength": -26.454418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.932633, "energy": 60.506215, "activity_lines": [ 9.146, 9.419273, 9.496333, 9.583153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.048, "volume": 1850, "typical_volume": 1303.75, "trend": 9.7819, "fair_value": 10.135314, "relative_strength": -26.704555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.807124, "energy": 66.183087, "activity_lines": [ 9.107933, 9.314309, 9.454114, 9.531422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.2, "volume": 2371, "typical_volume": 1385.05, "trend": 9.7195, "fair_value": 10.141385, "relative_strength": -24.642529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.096584, "energy": 36.585253, "activity_lines": [ 9.139467, 9.251109, 9.428652, 9.49388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.851, "volume": 30180, "typical_volume": 2837.5, "trend": 9.646133, "fair_value": 10.147, "relative_strength": -27.310823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.505486, "energy": 40.828553, "activity_lines": [ 9.0678, 9.136291, 9.373752, 9.437847 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.738, "volume": 6421, "typical_volume": 3143.65, "trend": 9.596133, "fair_value": 10.160872, "relative_strength": -21.659348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.854122, "energy": 16.219321, "activity_lines": [ 9.272733, 9.211855, 9.406567, 9.443774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }