{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e44e9c5a-93c9-4935-8c05-e63ede224c6d", "symbol": "SHYG", "name": "ISHARES TRUST 0-5YR HIGH YEILD CORP BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.356, "architecture_energy": 16.578, "architecture_maturity": 15.297, "architecture_confidence": 75.545, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.5, "rotation_up": 28.36, "upward_expansion": 46.98, "deceleration": 80.54, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 24.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.97821, 41.996873, 41.999965, 41.934033 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 42.15, "trend_reference": 41.871059, "distance_from_trend": 0.006662, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.71088, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088841, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.725949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007047, "excess_performance": -0.118578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006662, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016417, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.113825, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6937816, "relative_activity": 1.028683, "balance": 1.113825, "dry_up": 1.083032, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005194, "annualized_volatility": 0.032786, "from_high_reference": -0.002769, "from_low_reference": 0.041365 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.871059, "fair_value_reference": 38.71088, "structural_low": 41.097376, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011234, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030759, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.006592, "worst_return": -0.023949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011113, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01318, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.032566, "worst_return": -0.015976, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.014042, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.065459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044041, "worst_return": -0.072124, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 41.785937, "volume": 7219261, "typical_volume": 6963977.25, "trend": 41.852177, "fair_value": 38.606752, "relative_strength": -6.920077, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.230679, "energy": 13.975364, "activity_lines": [ 41.926166, 41.991279, 41.974753, 41.911898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.90524, "volume": 9447202, "typical_volume": 6909955.7, "trend": 41.859967, "fair_value": 38.658216, "relative_strength": -7.386728, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.805329, "energy": 15.13293, "activity_lines": [ 41.904577, 41.971378, 41.977054, 41.915321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.15, "volume": 6937816, "typical_volume": 6744366.8, "trend": 41.871059, "fair_value": 38.71088, "relative_strength": -9.725949, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.355656, "energy": 16.578393, "activity_lines": [ 41.97821, 41.996873, 41.999965, 41.934033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }