{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e45073e7-0b60-41a2-8964-7ea0d5e6e7a6", "symbol": "CUBEXTUB", "name": "Cubex Tubings Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.898, "architecture_energy": 62.848, "architecture_maturity": 41.151, "architecture_confidence": 94.698, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 16.2, "upward_expansion": 13.04, "deceleration": 40.53, "rotation_down": 65.93, "downward_expansion": 88.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.226666, 80.000181, 84.442857, 87.463635 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 80.07, "trend_reference": 93.038, "distance_from_trend": -0.139384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 89.666026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.472947, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.302405, "excess_performance": -0.258695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05446, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10702, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134729, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302405, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.095853, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 215383, "relative_activity": 0.473856, "balance": 0.095853, "dry_up": 0.398656, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088576, "annualized_volatility": 0.394652, "from_high_reference": -0.442759, "from_low_reference": 0.095349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.038, "fair_value_reference": 89.666026, "structural_low": 73.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.010546, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.032656, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.438431, "worst_return": -0.17552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062431, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.020692, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.352351, "worst_return": -0.224008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.03844, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012764, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.592668, "worst_return": -0.021744, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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83.041334, 85.528728, 88.506524, 92.080925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 78.029999, "volume": 193822, "typical_volume": 520185.3, "trend": 96.603334, "fair_value": 88.938205, "relative_strength": -15.329052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.759092, "energy": 61.942471, "activity_lines": [ 81.176667, 83.554546, 87.350048, 90.855205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.989998, "volume": 151007, "typical_volume": 499330.15, "trend": 95.406667, "fair_value": 89.163141, "relative_strength": -14.281325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.916172, "energy": 65.092502, "activity_lines": [ 79.304666, 81.837091, 86.228429, 89.589828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.279999, "volume": 164596, "typical_volume": 463337.5, "trend": 93.899334, "fair_value": 89.39891, "relative_strength": -17.041701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.53289, "energy": 72.074874, "activity_lines": [ 77.865333, 80.443091, 85.126905, 88.35585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.07, "volume": 215383, "typical_volume": 454532.7, "trend": 93.038, "fair_value": 89.666026, "relative_strength": -13.472947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.897738, "energy": 62.847752, "activity_lines": [ 78.226666, 80.000181, 84.442857, 87.463635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }