{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4517ba9-56f9-4c26-b9bf-136c2427c85c", "symbol": "EMSF", "name": "MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL FUNDS EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE ACTI", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.002, "architecture_energy": 18.605, "architecture_maturity": 66.339, "architecture_confidence": 82.673, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.91, "rotation_up": 16.64, "upward_expansion": 45.38, "deceleration": 87.91, "rotation_down": 40.01, "downward_expansion": 28.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.8209, 38.879318, 38.962476, 37.732234 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.3889, "trend_reference": 35.987243, "distance_from_trend": 0.066736, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.518363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.418721, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.200967, "excess_performance": 0.075342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066736, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104458, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044187, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17752, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.200967, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.538461, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53494, "relative_activity": 2.334199, "balance": 1.538461, "dry_up": 0.949275, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0736, "annualized_volatility": 0.322567, "from_high_reference": -0.201063, "from_low_reference": 0.454798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.987243, "fair_value_reference": 27.518363, "structural_low": 29.57, "invalidation": "A 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37.559683 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.3889, "volume": 53494, "typical_volume": 22917.5, "trend": 35.987243, "fair_value": 27.518363, "relative_strength": 4.418721, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.001563, "energy": 18.604647, "activity_lines": [ 37.8209, 38.879318, 38.962476, 37.732234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }