{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e45492b4-4a53-4238-973a-6a7bc237e009",
    "symbol": "MRL",
    "name": "MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A.",
    "exchange": "MCE",
    "country": "ES",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^IBEX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 50.526,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 28.64,
    "architecture_energy": 15.609,
    "architecture_maturity": 52.07,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.715,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.64,
        "rotation_up": 25.3,
        "upward_expansion": 56.68,
        "deceleration": 88.08,
        "rotation_down": 30.03,
        "downward_expansion": 20.34
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.012,
        15.132182,
        15.078807,
        14.839997
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 14.77,
    "trend_reference": 14.372576,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.027652,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 10.792845,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368499,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.727879,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.153497,
    "excess_performance": 0.029066,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027652,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072063,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.368499,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.086098,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067279,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123133,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.153497,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.892075,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4167951,
      "relative_activity": 0.875472,
      "balance": 0.892075,
      "dry_up": 0.831593,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035831,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.220919,
      "from_high_reference": -0.053812,
      "from_low_reference": 0.267772
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.372576,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.792845,
      "structural_low": 12.705891,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.004872,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003943,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.120157,
        "worst_return": -0.045084,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.094888,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.040167,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.180031,
        "worst_return": -0.011231,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.118676,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.060098,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.272542,
        "worst_return": -0.040629,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.194272,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.155725,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.423562,
        "worst_return": 0.078668,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.049533,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.080314,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02832,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.067327,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02663,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.04304,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001024,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.098829,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "return": 0.01327,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 3525209,
        "typical_volume": 5262297.9,
        "trend": 14.192095,
        "fair_value": 10.697745,
        "relative_strength": -0.717483,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 50.467594,
        "energy": 33.883199,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.05,
        "volume": 4475066,
        "typical_volume": 5099175.9,
        "trend": 14.288317,
        "fair_value": 10.745735,
        "relative_strength": -3.393718,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.223763,
        "energy": 22.863376,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.148667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.77,
        "volume": 4167951,
        "typical_volume": 4760807.05,
        "trend": 14.372576,
        "fair_value": 10.792845,
        "relative_strength": -6.727879,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.639738,
        "energy": 15.60873,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.012,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}