{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4559d9f-b854-46bc-a149-e149c85a3b89", "symbol": "EMTY", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.783, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -3.406, "architecture_energy": 7.646, "architecture_maturity": 9.858, "architecture_confidence": 62.222, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.51, "rotation_up": 26.31, "upward_expansion": 46.9, "deceleration": 72.64, "rotation_down": 31.13, "downward_expansion": 31.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.52564, 23.685402, 23.772653, 23.633172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.6717, "trend_reference": 23.327172, "distance_from_trend": -0.028099, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.960415, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.15478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042993, "excess_performance": -0.082632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028099, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001895, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091694, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036378, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131548, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039736, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.915133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11847, "relative_activity": 0.611217, "balance": 0.915133, "dry_up": 0.339401, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042389, "annualized_volatility": 0.184265, "from_high_reference": -0.108195, "from_low_reference": 0.054486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.327172, "fair_value_reference": 24.960415, "structural_low": 21.500238, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.012893, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.023608, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.185519, "worst_return": -0.120928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.012489, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.010616, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.060119, "worst_return": -0.100031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012327, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.089099, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.21799, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 23.9086, "volume": 6818, "typical_volume": 20434.55, "trend": 23.311905, "fair_value": 25.011707, "relative_strength": -5.620033, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.405682, "energy": 17.032565, "activity_lines": [ 23.893729, 23.906263, 23.833907, 23.587938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.4661, "volume": 5151, "typical_volume": 20000.95, "trend": 23.339679, "fair_value": 25.002035, "relative_strength": -2.683354, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.14514, "energy": 31.146064, "activity_lines": [ 24.09084, 23.986624, 23.905024, 23.662402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.5468, "volume": 2498, "typical_volume": 19515.35, "trend": 23.331887, "fair_value": 24.984621, "relative_strength": -6.994841, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.346548, "energy": 21.151009, "activity_lines": [ 23.952587, 23.910499, 23.881235, 23.675765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.6717, "volume": 11847, "typical_volume": 19382.65, "trend": 23.327172, "fair_value": 24.960415, "relative_strength": -13.15478, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.406112, "energy": 7.645674, "activity_lines": [ 23.52564, 23.685402, 23.772653, 23.633172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }