{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e464329c-4687-4538-905d-8ffb86a12c91",
    "symbol": "TPHC",
    "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Japan Topix UCITS ETF-C CHF Hedged",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 94.344,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 72.843,
    "architecture_energy": 47.731,
    "architecture_maturity": 84.527,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.83,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.97,
        "rotation_up": 47.43,
        "upward_expansion": 76.12,
        "deceleration": 68.66,
        "rotation_down": 28.8,
        "downward_expansion": 11.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        154.026667,
        153.885092,
        151.777906,
        149.398323
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 156.240005,
    "trend_reference": 146.544001,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.066164,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 112.060385,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394248,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.782221,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.088174,
    "excess_performance": 0.005291,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066164,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05596,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.394248,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009119,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027822,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.09933,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088174,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.23982,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5863,
      "relative_activity": 5.184137,
      "balance": 1.23982,
      "dry_up": 2.598258,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022175,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.16093,
      "from_high_reference": -0.007874,
      "from_low_reference": 0.345505
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 146.544001,
      "fair_value_reference": 112.060385,
      "structural_low": 135.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.017799,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008404,
        "regime_survival": 0.775,
        "best_return": 0.074761,
        "worst_return": -0.070112,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.055742,
        "positive_rate": 0.785714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.785714,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018992,
        "regime_survival": 0.642857,
        "best_return": 0.11807,
        "worst_return": -0.099707,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.091174,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.054708,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.279732,
        "worst_return": -0.081005,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.185387,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.12137,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.344282,
        "worst_return": -0.074322,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.000422,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.076573,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009087,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.000195,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005681,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014027,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "return": 0.012756,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 747.05,
        "trend": 136.339334,
        "fair_value": 106.242757,
        "relative_strength": 12.715204,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 70.087879,
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        "activity_lines": [
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 811.4,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "relative_strength": 9.614114,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 139.625334,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 5.040563,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 108,
        "typical_volume": 890.9,
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        "fair_value": 109.819167,
        "relative_strength": 4.406544,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 155.660004,
        "volume": 1609,
        "typical_volume": 930.35,
        "trend": 143.794668,
        "fair_value": 110.289744,
        "relative_strength": 5.604018,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.732892,
        "energy": 90.007316,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 150.759995,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 892.4,
        "trend": 144.446001,
        "fair_value": 110.718782,
        "relative_strength": 1.226828,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.437594,
        "energy": 60.958405,
        "activity_lines": [
          153.628001,
          152.911637,
          149.784763,
          147.642022
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 154.220001,
        "volume": 122,
        "typical_volume": 840.7,
        "trend": 145.211334,
        "fair_value": 111.161026,
        "relative_strength": 3.408593,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.188258,
        "energy": 58.553953,
        "activity_lines": [
          153.665334,
          153.314546,
          150.504858,
          148.272603
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 152.339996,
        "volume": 5769,
        "typical_volume": 967.7,
        "trend": 145.920001,
        "fair_value": 111.602116,
        "relative_strength": 1.794118,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.253575,
        "energy": 41.891462,
        "activity_lines": [
          153.170665,
          153.275636,
          150.990382,
          148.732517
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 156.240005,
        "volume": 5863,
        "typical_volume": 1130.95,
        "trend": 146.544001,
        "fair_value": 112.060385,
        "relative_strength": 2.782221,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.842775,
        "energy": 47.730871,
        "activity_lines": [
          154.026667,
          153.885092,
          151.777906,
          149.398323
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}