{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e46a7042-d485-4756-8ded-11280d64fa9a", "symbol": "NUN", "name": "Nu Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.725, "architecture_energy": 16.533, "architecture_maturity": 30.775, "architecture_confidence": 55.629, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.0, "rotation_up": 38.06, "upward_expansion": 32.92, "deceleration": 46.67, "rotation_down": 16.52, "downward_expansion": 41.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 242.298665, 237.658545, 234.515713, 240.107139 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 236.589996, "trend_reference": 252.236332, "distance_from_trend": -0.06203, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 230.083525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.896144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.211735, "excess_performance": -0.157068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06203, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211735, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.994574, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58500, "relative_activity": 0.60755, "balance": 2.994574, "dry_up": 1.385402, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065173, "annualized_volatility": 0.368774, "from_high_reference": -0.28293, "from_low_reference": 0.154098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 252.236332, "fair_value_reference": 230.083525, "structural_low": 205.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.044641, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.055124, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.209818, "worst_return": -0.136686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.105858, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.011521, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.18312, "worst_return": -0.263856, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.090015, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079113, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.240204, "worst_return": -0.060173, "sufficient": false }, 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232.885093, 233.709762, 241.830386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 248.289993, "volume": 34874, "typical_volume": 95660.15, "trend": 254.849998, "fair_value": 229.413077, "relative_strength": -9.808706, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.625876, "energy": 18.87296, "activity_lines": [ 243.950667, 236.585455, 234.669142, 241.285203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 236.589996, "volume": 58500, "typical_volume": 96288.45, "trend": 252.236332, "fair_value": 230.083525, "relative_strength": -13.896144, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.725002, "energy": 16.533023, "activity_lines": [ 242.298665, 237.658545, 234.515713, 240.107139 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }