{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e470ae09-427c-4ca1-ba47-d9b75b717720", "symbol": "XCHA", "name": "Xtrackers CSI300 Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.747, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.196, "architecture_energy": 25.467, "architecture_maturity": 64.999, "architecture_confidence": 82.162, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.87, "rotation_up": 23.67, "upward_expansion": 55.77, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 34.67, "downward_expansion": 21.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.015333, 17.131563, 17.026714, 16.753824 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.226, "trend_reference": 16.405867, "distance_from_trend": 0.04999, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.510359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.206169, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112791, "excess_performance": 0.029907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04999, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037339, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022062, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112791, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.344765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39350, "relative_activity": 1.803168, "balance": 1.344765, "dry_up": 2.424482, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026954, "annualized_volatility": 0.152331, "from_high_reference": -0.10169, "from_low_reference": 0.276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.405867, "fair_value_reference": 13.510359, "structural_low": 15.26, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007105, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.023191, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.058662, "worst_return": -0.054353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.084212, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.083432, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032305, "worst_return": -0.110342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.074173, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.045888, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144984, "worst_return": -0.152552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 16.444, "volume": 66458, "typical_volume": 45417.45, "trend": 16.275133, "fair_value": 13.429885, "relative_strength": -5.053174, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.898064, "energy": 37.480515, "activity_lines": [ 17.1212, 17.170182, 16.898781, 16.607983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.177999, "volume": 93188, "typical_volume": 22234.6, "trend": 16.329467, "fair_value": 13.456256, "relative_strength": -0.841246, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.223436, "energy": 27.735132, "activity_lines": [ 17.074533, 17.179927, 16.957267, 16.666232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.834, "volume": 12639, "typical_volume": 21605.9, "trend": 16.372867, "fair_value": 13.479974, "relative_strength": -3.023336, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.006739, "energy": 24.937393, "activity_lines": [ 16.954666, 17.121309, 16.975629, 16.698783 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.226, "volume": 39350, "typical_volume": 21822.7, "trend": 16.405867, "fair_value": 13.510359, "relative_strength": -2.206169, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.19643, "energy": 25.466783, "activity_lines": [ 17.015333, 17.131563, 17.026714, 16.753824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }