{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e472861a-f61c-4fe7-bd13-494f02a5c540", "symbol": "SUAS", "name": "iShares MSCI USA SRI UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.527, "architecture_energy": 53.071, "architecture_maturity": 64.807, "architecture_confidence": 70.105, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.98, "rotation_up": 45.02, "upward_expansion": 71.62, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 21.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.8008, 17.844582, 17.529467, 17.075454 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.158001, "trend_reference": 16.5436, "distance_from_trend": 0.097585, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.513205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251137, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.940253, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167267, "excess_performance": -0.003625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097585, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055566, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251137, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046175, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167267, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.153067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118671, "relative_activity": 0.906514, "balance": 3.153067, "dry_up": 0.597197, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020775, "annualized_volatility": 0.121459, "from_high_reference": -0.003512, "from_low_reference": 0.252794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.5436, "fair_value_reference": 14.513205, "structural_low": 14.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002317, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010111, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.105535, "worst_return": -0.103027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.033589, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002913, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.121587, "worst_return": -0.189064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.100802, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140198, "worst_return": -0.067062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086465, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146788, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002717, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.806013, "energy": 86.710434, "activity_lines": [ 18.031333, 17.792545, 17.144905, 16.717368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.686001, "volume": 58588, "typical_volume": 134281.45, "trend": 16.313, "fair_value": 14.40641, "relative_strength": -1.392751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.7835, "energy": 66.977891, "activity_lines": [ 17.939867, 17.813455, 17.250486, 16.811114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.667999, "volume": 94928, "typical_volume": 133207.4, "trend": 16.3922, "fair_value": 14.440628, "relative_strength": -1.254986, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.370334, "energy": 64.002471, "activity_lines": [ 17.8376, 17.816945, 17.344467, 16.898533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.441999, "volume": 40527, "typical_volume": 130832.1, "trend": 16.465533, "fair_value": 14.474449, "relative_strength": -3.073921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.40631, "energy": 49.96023, "activity_lines": [ 17.682533, 17.767636, 17.407695, 16.966262 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.158001, "volume": 118671, "typical_volume": 130909.15, "trend": 16.5436, "fair_value": 14.513205, "relative_strength": -1.940253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.527138, "energy": 53.071056, "activity_lines": [ 17.8008, 17.844582, 17.529467, 17.075454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }