{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e478b450-b54c-4a65-bc16-9fe338f67c95", "symbol": "STPZ", "name": "PIMCO ETF TRUST 1-5 YR US TIPS INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 58.11, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.567, "architecture_energy": 58.888, "architecture_maturity": 4.511, "architecture_confidence": 93.18, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.87, "rotation_up": 17.82, "upward_expansion": 11.88, "deceleration": 42.67, "rotation_down": 60.51, "downward_expansion": 85.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.54457, 52.597356, 52.769838, 52.861908 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 52.59, "trend_reference": 52.927785, "distance_from_trend": -0.006382, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.20312, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.329918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005817, "excess_performance": -0.131442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000417, "read": "Rising" }, 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.507862, "energy": 64.032237, "activity_lines": [ 52.656162, 52.775551, 52.93611, 52.963427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.599558, "volume": 324019, "typical_volume": 322995.8, "trend": 52.939283, "fair_value": 50.083285, "relative_strength": -8.662592, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.157991, "energy": 61.178154, "activity_lines": [ 52.613576, 52.727945, 52.895482, 52.941511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.450663, "volume": 432435, "typical_volume": 325465.95, "trend": 52.933701, "fair_value": 50.12298, "relative_strength": -8.125821, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.122787, "energy": 78.249354, "activity_lines": [ 52.544628, 52.662307, 52.84333, 52.909987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.529379, "volume": 279169, "typical_volume": 328666.75, "trend": 52.93091, "fair_value": 50.162532, "relative_strength": -8.658934, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.49145, "energy": 72.857669, "activity_lines": [ 52.523886, 52.621124, 52.802323, 52.883902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.59, "volume": 346158, "typical_volume": 340022.5, "trend": 52.927785, "fair_value": 50.20312, "relative_strength": -11.329918, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.566919, "energy": 58.887781, "activity_lines": [ 52.54457, 52.597356, 52.769838, 52.861908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }