{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e47cb4dd-1c58-4099-a197-a20d24dba3da",
    "symbol": "H78",
    "name": "Hongkong Land Holdings Limited",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 84.75,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -6.86,
    "architecture_energy": 24.492,
    "architecture_maturity": 23.766,
    "architecture_confidence": 53.462,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.24,
        "rotation_up": 49.06,
        "upward_expansion": 34.35,
        "deceleration": 37.74,
        "rotation_down": 13.8,
        "downward_expansion": 43.35
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        7.884,
        7.643091,
        7.653143,
        7.754833
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 7.97,
    "trend_reference": 7.889964,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.010144,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4.860887,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.639619,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -7.071209,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.003764,
    "excess_performance": -0.1586,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010144,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038648,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.639619,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.19017,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.070712,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.193916,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003764,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.687433,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9493400,
      "relative_activity": 0.929973,
      "balance": 0.687433,
      "dry_up": 1.005742,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.049223,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.239531,
      "from_high_reference": -0.106447,
      "from_low_reference": 0.404441
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7.889964,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.860887,
      "structural_low": 6.98,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.046313,
        "positive_rate": 0.307692,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.307692,
        "median_excess_return": -0.042976,
        "regime_survival": 0.384615,
        "best_return": 0.239506,
        "worst_return": -0.122661,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.015374,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011639,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.548148,
        "worst_return": -0.189616,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.014849,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.085983,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.595919,
        "worst_return": -0.12048,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.246584,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.149642,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 1.060152,
        "worst_return": -0.201471,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.047198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.07764,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.242254,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.015731,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023493,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.212346,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.243285,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.154589,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.1599,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028241,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.038058,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.036827,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.061438,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 8952247.8,
        "trend": 3.586453,
        "fair_value": 3.709471,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 4.738519,
        "relative_strength": -11.092676,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 11189008.15,
        "trend": 7.805318,
        "fair_value": 4.767035,
        "relative_strength": -7.695289,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.879699,
        "energy": 34.742243,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 10643200,
        "typical_volume": 10928646.3,
        "trend": 7.835464,
        "fair_value": 4.797144,
        "relative_strength": -7.551818,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -32.470918,
        "energy": 19.346521,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 8.12,
        "volume": 11362200,
        "typical_volume": 10605676.3,
        "trend": 7.876298,
        "fair_value": 4.829825,
        "relative_strength": -4.150567,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -4.004927,
        "energy": 17.013009,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.769333,
          7.550545,
          7.629381,
          7.748787
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7.97,
        "volume": 9493400,
        "typical_volume": 10208256.3,
        "trend": 7.889964,
        "fair_value": 4.860887,
        "relative_strength": -7.071209,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -6.859873,
        "energy": 24.492105,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.884,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}