{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e47cb707-356e-4ea4-acb9-a71fd103473c", "symbol": "ESGW", "name": "Invesco MSCI World Universal Screened UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.736, "architecture_energy": 68.872, "architecture_maturity": 87.997, "architecture_confidence": 72.829, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.42, "rotation_up": 54.7, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.35, "rotation_down": 28.97, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 91.575333, 91.180363, 89.694476, 87.716559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 93.580002, "trend_reference": 85.425667, "distance_from_trend": 0.095455, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.491026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290918, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.971671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149208, "excess_performance": 0.084568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290918, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049208, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049717, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042951, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149208, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.46438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22135, "relative_activity": 2.734674, "balance": 1.46438, "dry_up": 2.178257, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017574, "annualized_volatility": 0.11162, "from_high_reference": -0.002558, "from_low_reference": 0.252241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.425667, "fair_value_reference": 72.491026, "structural_low": 77.040001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011236, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.002565, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.063616, "worst_return": -0.080631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025887, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.041764, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.109636, "worst_return": -0.149724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.081365, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.079316, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.156452, "worst_return": -0.090464, "sufficient": true }, { 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80.133266, "energy": 88.05409, "activity_lines": [ 91.033999, 90.25, 87.720095, 85.986839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.440002, "volume": 8568, "typical_volume": 6227.55, "trend": 84.375667, "fair_value": 71.816987, "relative_strength": 8.387825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.678155, "energy": 76.068938, "activity_lines": [ 90.962666, 90.427455, 88.200953, 86.400409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 90.769997, "volume": 1726, "typical_volume": 6053.95, "trend": 84.722334, "fair_value": 72.031731, "relative_strength": 7.288218, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.902005, "energy": 65.313415, "activity_lines": [ 90.917999, 90.591999, 88.673048, 86.812946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.199997, "volume": 38096, "typical_volume": 7761.7, "trend": 85.051667, "fair_value": 72.249295, "relative_strength": 4.179757, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.599447, "energy": 60.541722, "activity_lines": [ 90.686665, 90.59109, 89.046571, 87.166344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.580002, "volume": 22135, "typical_volume": 8094.2, "trend": 85.425667, "fair_value": 72.491026, "relative_strength": 4.971671, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.736175, "energy": 68.871808, "activity_lines": [ 91.575333, 91.180363, 89.694476, 87.716559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }