{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e4809c0c-a72e-4d56-b48f-e2598d59aaed", "symbol": "GLRY", "name": "INSPIRE GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.293, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.993, "architecture_energy": 16.254, "architecture_maturity": 47.367, "architecture_confidence": 78.977, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.15, "rotation_up": 24.29, "upward_expansion": 53.63, "deceleration": 90.67, "rotation_down": 27.08, "downward_expansion": 17.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.353287, 41.587321, 41.436792, 40.825465 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 41.4425, "trend_reference": 40.011178, "distance_from_trend": 0.035773, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.298951, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283091, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.544876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084882, "excess_performance": -0.040743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035773, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047686, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084882, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.989381, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88468, "relative_activity": 0.765068, "balance": 0.989381, "dry_up": 0.749341, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043748, "annualized_volatility": 0.1719, "from_high_reference": -0.053608, "from_low_reference": 0.224716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.011178, "fair_value_reference": 32.298951, "structural_low": 35.6194, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.04049, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.007399, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.073689, "worst_return": -0.032455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037614, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019886, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.137839, "worst_return": 0.006747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.122647, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168855, "worst_return": 0.08941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01268, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083071, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043145, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 41.704954, 41.750799, 41.203394, 40.509237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.3224, "volume": 70684, "typical_volume": 115661.05, "trend": 39.703304, "fair_value": 32.099125, "relative_strength": 0.69397, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.11377, "energy": 20.80043, "activity_lines": [ 41.488027, 41.707553, 41.297405, 40.623638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.2576, "volume": 87599, "typical_volume": 115839.4, "trend": 39.868474, "fair_value": 32.198755, "relative_strength": -0.604333, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.224793, "energy": 16.87884, "activity_lines": [ 41.36576, 41.634781, 41.367476, 40.723915 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.4425, "volume": 88468, "typical_volume": 115634.2, "trend": 40.011178, "fair_value": 32.298951, "relative_strength": -3.544876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.993298, "energy": 16.254254, "activity_lines": [ 41.353287, 41.587321, 41.436792, 40.825465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }