{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e482adf5-dba5-4174-b867-70f16c098c58", "symbol": "KORU", "name": "DIREXION DAILY MSCI SOUTH KOREA BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.599, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.911, "architecture_energy": 47.832, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.76, "rotation_up": 14.57, "upward_expansion": 23.68, "deceleration": 51.3, "rotation_down": 71.21, "downward_expansion": 55.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.645333, 23.743582, 29.594574, 28.52023 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 17.36, "trend_reference": 26.296077, "distance_from_trend": -0.339825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.194358, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.118531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.858573, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043845, "excess_performance": -0.16947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.339825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.345979, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.118531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -5.86347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.092409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.353759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169097673, "relative_activity": 4.335039, "balance": 0.353759, "dry_up": 4.483914, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.806896, "annualized_volatility": 2.02051, "from_high_reference": -0.728686, "from_low_reference": 3.659627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.296077, "fair_value_reference": 8.194358, "structural_low": 11.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.21042, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.166187, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.202947, "worst_return": -0.217893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.06608, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.087245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.06608, "worst_return": -0.06608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.022348, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.123004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.022348, "worst_return": 0.022348, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.095032, 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"2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.181012, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.423666, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.257285, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.968853, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.921104, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.17908, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.675684, "volume": 1509507, "typical_volume": 1037770.95, "trend": 4.331291, "fair_value": 9.835759, "relative_strength": -14.140804, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.647026, "energy": 23.385532, "activity_lines": [ 4.235294, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.536078, "energy": 17.671811, "activity_lines": [ 27.4871, 33.506555, 33.294022, 30.300615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.85, "volume": 112276450, "typical_volume": 15300681.95, "trend": 25.982693, "fair_value": 8.042489, "relative_strength": -2.973522, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.915567, "energy": 30.6184, "activity_lines": [ 22.4607, 30.070645, 32.167309, 29.795557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.99, "volume": 318303583, "typical_volume": 30830591.0, "trend": 26.134873, "fair_value": 8.109632, "relative_strength": -20.265928, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.981352, "energy": 40.695582, "activity_lines": [ 18.926767, 26.473227, 30.76613, 29.086351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.36, "volume": 169097673, "typical_volume": 39007188.6, "trend": 26.296077, "fair_value": 8.194358, "relative_strength": -11.858573, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.910616, "energy": 47.832456, "activity_lines": [ 17.645333, 23.743582, 29.594574, 28.52023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }