{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e483e682-403f-4d2e-9eba-fab7763c7f5e", "symbol": "600482", "name": "China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.309, "architecture_energy": 49.14, "architecture_maturity": 11.765, "architecture_confidence": 47.435, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.29, "rotation_up": 19.05, "upward_expansion": 18.19, "deceleration": 45.42, "rotation_down": 58.91, "downward_expansion": 55.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.9799, 30.093083, 32.564623, 33.105768 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.24, "trend_reference": 32.588337, "distance_from_trend": -0.072061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.183659, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304367, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.358279, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.159509, "excess_performance": 0.202713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072061, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123686, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.430639, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.093583, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159509, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755973, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132804717, "relative_activity": 0.840371, "balance": 0.755973, "dry_up": 0.844517, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141055, "annualized_volatility": 0.727021, "from_high_reference": -0.302422, "from_low_reference": 0.55796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.588337, "fair_value_reference": 23.183659, "structural_low": 25.610001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014082, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003002, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.214066, "worst_return": -0.085618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067939, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.103582, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.529358, "worst_return": -0.149972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.141494, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.112651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.75294, "worst_return": -0.004758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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29.353498, "volume": 134662759, "typical_volume": 171611507.7, "trend": 32.076004, "fair_value": 23.094763, "relative_strength": 10.221823, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.758624, "energy": 37.963371, "activity_lines": [ 30.196613, 31.491088, 33.671243, 33.579725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.76, "volume": 120204288, "typical_volume": 161896984.65, "trend": 32.270337, "fair_value": 23.123259, "relative_strength": -0.150599, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.976103, "energy": 56.006564, "activity_lines": [ 28.903938, 30.393267, 32.937719, 33.236757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.24, "volume": 132804717, "typical_volume": 158031091.65, "trend": 32.588337, "fair_value": 23.183659, "relative_strength": 9.358279, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.309423, "energy": 49.139564, "activity_lines": [ 28.9799, 30.093083, 32.564623, 33.105768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }