{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e484ff44-37d8-4629-b9d5-6807733dcb65", "symbol": "002691", "name": "Jikai Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.272, "architecture_energy": 64.363, "architecture_maturity": 92.068, "architecture_confidence": 95.263, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 28.46, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.97, "rotation_down": 52.46, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.954667, 4.074909, 4.611667, 5.358538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.17, "trend_reference": 6.417, "distance_from_trend": -0.350164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.865769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.976936, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.516241, "excess_performance": -0.523641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.350164, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190998, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392639, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.459769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028899, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.516241, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14127940, "relative_activity": 0.525555, "balance": 0.643561, "dry_up": 0.614985, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128759, "annualized_volatility": 0.497184, "from_high_reference": -0.631625, "from_low_reference": 0.32381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.417, "fair_value_reference": 6.865769, "structural_low": 3.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.120325, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023529, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.055437, "worst_return": -0.216561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.194245, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.086436, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.267857, "worst_return": -0.484076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.021583, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.068995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021583, "worst_return": 0.021583, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214141, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.55574, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107623, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 29633731.45, "trend": 6.891333, "fair_value": 6.908288, "relative_strength": -50.918346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.176598, "energy": 73.734535, "activity_lines": [ 4.108667, 4.403636, 5.109238, 5.905398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.59, "volume": 20030140, "typical_volume": 28441778.45, "trend": 6.745333, "fair_value": 6.891923, "relative_strength": -53.203215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.528156, "energy": 71.879514, "activity_lines": [ 3.909333, 4.202364, 4.891048, 5.692409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.98, "volume": 17506240, "typical_volume": 27767791.9, "trend": 6.579667, "fair_value": 6.877692, "relative_strength": -46.53567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.208543, "energy": 66.084097, "activity_lines": [ 3.898, 4.108364, 4.732476, 5.514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.17, "volume": 14127940, "typical_volume": 26881947.75, "trend": 6.417, "fair_value": 6.865769, "relative_strength": -45.976936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.272248, "energy": 64.363002, "activity_lines": [ 3.954667, 4.074909, 4.611667, 5.358538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }