{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e48a19bb-d943-4c07-b595-831c52ee26d0",
    "symbol": "8923",
    "name": "China Times Publishing Comp.",
    "exchange": "TWO",
    "country": "TW",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-14",
    "benchmark": "^TWII",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 48.016,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -5.666,
    "architecture_energy": 7.733,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.362,
    "architecture_confidence": 44.325,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 66.53,
        "rotation_up": 24.71,
        "upward_expansion": 17.43,
        "deceleration": 64.73,
        "rotation_down": 43.56,
        "downward_expansion": 37.77
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        18.786667,
        18.887377,
        18.803072,
        18.807255
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 18.700001,
    "trend_reference": 18.805708,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.005621,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 18.159998,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029736,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -30.206016,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.023384,
    "excess_performance": -0.464756,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005621,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003449,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029736,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00957,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.30206,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043213,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023384,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.901531,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 72006,
      "relative_activity": 2.381245,
      "balance": 0.901531,
      "dry_up": 1.358462,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.038285,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.148332,
      "from_high_reference": -0.155985,
      "from_low_reference": 0.081832
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 18.805708,
      "fair_value_reference": 18.159998,
      "structural_low": 17.285499,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 26,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.461538,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.461538,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014537,
        "regime_survival": 0.576923,
        "best_return": 0.085529,
        "worst_return": -0.083333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.011228,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048612,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.06326,
        "worst_return": -0.07455,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.025326,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.097671,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.173761,
        "worst_return": -0.048304,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.048987,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.018395,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.314746,
        "worst_return": 0.037326,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.010127,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.010076,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.037562,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.010204,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.078534,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.002475,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030151,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.012469,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.020725,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012918,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.036269,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005319,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-11",
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        "typical_volume": 115500.0,
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      },
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        "trend": 19.066574,
        "fair_value": 18.052318,
        "relative_strength": -31.480106,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -45.785926,
        "energy": 25.929825,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.746649,
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          18.861249,
          18.922554
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 18.240499,
        "volume": 4100,
        "typical_volume": 16441.35,
        "trend": 19.031558,
        "fair_value": 18.058721,
        "relative_strength": -36.633001,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.716962,
        "energy": 44.209293,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.558833,
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          18.801903,
          18.869259
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 18.431499,
        "volume": 14006,
        "typical_volume": 16836.65,
        "trend": 18.994949,
        "fair_value": 18.067158,
        "relative_strength": -34.527274,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.46879,
        "energy": 44.98889,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.501532,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 18.956751,
        "volume": 17029,
        "typical_volume": 17188.1,
        "trend": 18.958341,
        "fair_value": 18.076536,
        "relative_strength": -33.675446,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.294498,
        "energy": 27.386795,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.619316,
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          18.77962,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 18.670248,
        "volume": 28100,
        "typical_volume": 18493.1,
        "trend": 18.916958,
        "fair_value": 18.08192,
        "relative_strength": -37.56537,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -45.178736,
        "energy": 22.305876,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.641599,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 18.192749,
        "volume": 50001,
        "typical_volume": 20738.05,
        "trend": 18.870799,
        "fair_value": 18.0864,
        "relative_strength": -38.841717,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -55.677427,
        "energy": 26.362992,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.507899,
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          18.711633,
          18.762771
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 18.47925,
        "volume": 14051,
        "typical_volume": 21340.45,
        "trend": 18.835783,
        "fair_value": 18.092447,
        "relative_strength": -35.823126,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.073831,
        "energy": 22.691341,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.501533,
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          18.684347,
          18.73751
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 18.908998,
        "volume": 46212,
        "typical_volume": 23395.05,
        "trend": 18.816683,
        "fair_value": 18.099631,
        "relative_strength": -36.787318,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -26.878642,
        "energy": 13.638276,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.622499,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 18.813499,
        "volume": 20200,
        "typical_volume": 24040.05,
        "trend": 18.799174,
        "fair_value": 18.109708,
        "relative_strength": -33.641121,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -25.550459,
        "energy": 11.906196,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.679799,
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          18.700718,
          18.742028
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 19.004499,
        "volume": 32100,
        "typical_volume": 25645.05,
        "trend": 18.799174,
        "fair_value": 18.121818,
        "relative_strength": -35.361088,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 2.315127,
        "energy": 7.27318,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.810316,
          18.704976,
          18.723002,
          18.755275
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 19.25,
        "volume": 28000,
        "typical_volume": 26445.05,
        "trend": 18.807358,
        "fair_value": 18.13604,
        "relative_strength": -31.651992,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.8019,
        "energy": 22.477039,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.000383,
          18.816463,
          18.769348,
          18.784361
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 19.299999,
        "volume": 27000,
        "typical_volume": 27445.05,
        "trend": 18.826758,
        "fair_value": 18.145731,
        "relative_strength": -26.305539,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.363373,
        "energy": 40.193363,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.136633,
          18.926499,
          18.819287,
          18.816144
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 19.0,
        "volume": 16000,
        "typical_volume": 27745.05,
        "trend": 18.807508,
        "fair_value": 18.152084,
        "relative_strength": -28.264615,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.859759,
        "energy": 45.90392,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.118166,
          18.962727,
          18.83561,
          18.827321
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 18.6,
        "volume": 38252,
        "typical_volume": 26546.5,
        "trend": 18.806758,
        "fair_value": 18.157288,
        "relative_strength": -28.07435,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.443889,
        "energy": 21.285288,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.9603,
          18.91589,
          18.812267,
          18.813933
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 18.799999,
        "volume": 38055,
        "typical_volume": 28399.25,
        "trend": 18.796758,
        "fair_value": 18.152739,
        "relative_strength": -28.221752,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.453828,
        "energy": 9.388761,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.883333,
          18.911904,
          18.811717,
          18.813497
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "close": 18.700001,
        "volume": 72006,
        "typical_volume": 30238.8,
        "trend": 18.805708,
        "fair_value": 18.159998,
        "relative_strength": -30.206016,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -5.665985,
        "energy": 7.733187,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.786667,
          18.887377,
          18.803072,
          18.807255
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}